Speaking to ERR on Thursday, Rainer Saks noted that Ukrainians have previously attempted to strike the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, but have not managed to inflict significant damage, only halting their operations for short periods. "At one point, operations in Ust-Luga were suspended for about a month or slightly longer, but that has not been sufficient," he said.

Saks explained that Primorsk is the main crude oil export port, connected to a pipeline from Siberia that transports oil to the port and onward to tankers. This port and pipeline have also been targeted before, but Ukrainians have not succeeded in stopping their operations for an extended period. The port of Ust-Luga exports both crude oil and petroleum products, which are also produced on-site and delivered there from elsewhere. The Kirishi oil refinery, which came under attack overnight into Thursday, is one of the largest in Russia and produces petroleum products both for the Saint Petersburg region and for export.

BREAKING:

At least 40% of Russia's crude oil export capacity is offline, around 2 million barrels per day, after Ukrainian drone strikes on key terminals

According to a Reuters report from March 25, 2026, major ports including Primorsk, Ust Luga, and Black Sea facilities… https://t.co/Z0XmbqTx8X pic.twitter.com/KCmxwNhfP1

— Russian Market (@runews) March 25, 2026

"So this is an exceptionally important strategic complex for Russia, which began to be rapidly developed after the collapse of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Previously, a large share of oil exports was routed through the ports of Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, but Russia's strategic objective was to shift oil exports to its own ports. In particular, this has been a policy that Russian President Vladimir Putin has pursued since his earliest days in power," Rainer Saks emphasized.

Ukraine's new capabilities

"Ukraine has now [developed] certain new military capabilities and tactics, particularly involving drones, and as we saw, these attacks were impressive in that fires broke out in both ports that lasted for several days," Saks said. "What burned were oil storage tanks at the port terminals where oil is brought in and then transferred onto ships. And without these tanks, operations there cannot continue," he added.

Saks noted that due to a lack of information, it is currently unclear how much of the ports' remaining infrastructure has been damaged, as other equipment may not burn in the same way as storage tanks and can be destroyed without large fires.

"But it is certain that neither port is currently operating. And how long this will last — I do not want to speculate as I do not have the data. However, considering that the port of Ust-Luga is still burning as of today, we can be sure we are talking about a disruption lasting months. And it is questionable whether both ports will be able to return to full capacity at all — they may only operate partially. So for Russia, this is undoubtedly a very significant setback," he said.

Saks also highlighted that overnight, a tanker in the Black Sea was attacked, having departed from a Russian Black Sea port.

"Russia does not have many options for exporting crude oil beyond its Black Sea and Baltic Sea ports. This is clearly a vulnerability that Ukraine has long planned and practiced targeting and has now reached the point where it can carry out these attacks very effectively," the expert said.

Ukrainian drones arrive in several waves

Responding to a question about the drone attack, Rainer Saks said: "According to current information, these were some kind of long-range drones, preceded by lighter drones deployed in multiple waves to exhaust Russia's air defenses. Then the main attack drones arrived, with sufficient payload capacity to carry explosives and Russian air defenses were no longer able to stop them — neither kinetically nor electronically."

"The images of the explosions, which have been widely shared on social media, show that this is a highly effective attack drone capable of causing very extensive damage. I do not know the exact parameters, but we are likely talking about an explosive payload of around 100 kilograms or even more," Saks added.

Today, March 25, 2026, marks the finish of a multi-day Ukrainian operation to turn off the whole of Russia's Baltic oil and gas hub: Ust-Luga, Primorsk and Vyborg.

After Ukrainian strikes, the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk stopped shipping oil. By preliminary data, 40% of the… https://t.co/ms0cMXUODE pic.twitter.com/Vymo8Ya9mk

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 25, 2026

"Ukraine has not shared many details about these drones, but we have likely seen analogous attacks using the same type of drones elsewhere in Russia. Striking Ust-Luga port and Primorsk port means covering a distance of nearly 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine," Saks noted. "It is now known that these drones can fly even farther, which means that essentially almost all major industrial facilities in the European part of Russia — and as even Russia's defense minister has stated, already as far as the Urals — fall within their range," he added.

"This poses a challenge for Russia's air defenses and the only thing currently sparing Russia from even greater problems is that Ukraine likely cannot yet produce these drones in very large quantities," Saks said.

The security expert also predicted that Ukraine's attacks on Russian targets in the Saint Petersburg region may now pause for some time.

"I think any new attacks along the Baltic coast, if they occur, will come after Ukraine has been able to assess the results of these current strikes and make decisions accordingly. Their resources are limited and they cannot carry out attacks just in case — these must be purposeful operations. Although the decoy drones are very cheap, the more effective long-range attack drones are certainly not and for that reason I believe that a larger wave of attacks is likely over, for now. If they determine that everything has worked as intended, they may repeat it at some point, but that will take time," Saks concluded.

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