If a notification, which can come by SMS text message or via an app such as the "Ole Valmis"" platform, is not clearly marked as a test, you must follow instructions to protect yourself. Argo Kerb, threat notifications and communications department manager at the Rescue Board (Päästeamet), and Uku Arold, stratcoms department head with the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF), noted in an interview with Vikkeraadio's "Uudis+" that despite a few glitches the correct information got to the public in affected areas on Wednesday morning, and in a timely manner.

Emergency alert drills have been conducted in Estonia several times already; the most recent one was last week. Prior to that, there was also a publicity campaign, and the sirens in cities, along with messages sent to phones, did not surprise people. However, yesterday morning at quarter to nine, or more precisely at 8:42, a message was sent to the phones of people who had downloaded the "Eesti.ee" app or the "Ole valmis!" app: "Due to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, there is an associated drone threat in the region. If you see one, take cover and call 112; additional information at kriis.ee and via 1247." Uku Arold: the [Auvere power station] chimney incident had already occurred five hours earlier — why was this message sent so late?

Well, to start off with, the issue was not the notification itself, but the real danger. The threat that culminated during the night with a drone hitting a chimney had already passed — no notification was issued about that in the morning. In the morning, people were informed that there was currently an aerial threat. Drone strikes were happening in several waves against infrastructure supporting Russia's war, including in the morning.

And the notification was issued to save people's lives — so that if people saw a drone that might be carrying explosives, they would not get injured in an explosion. The whole point was to protect people, and the threat actually persisted for much of the day yesterday. So we were only able to withdraw the alert in the evening, once the waves of attacks had ended.

So you were monitoring events from the night onward — or, in fact, continuously — but around half past eight you concluded that the situation was serious enough to send out this message?

Arold: Exactly so. At that moment there was a concrete and acute risk that drones could again be entering Estonia, and possibly reaching areas where people live.

How does this work — who decides and when that there is a real danger and that a message must be sent to people?

Arold: Well, it depends on the situation. When we are talking about an air threat, the decision is made in the relevant command center of the EDF, where the best real-time overview is available. There is no time to wait or to refine message wording and so on. These aerial vehicles move very quickly, and the alert must reach people before the threat materializes.

Let me bring in Argo Kerb to add to this. Previously, these drills had been coordinated or led by the Rescue Board, but perhaps yesterday morning it may have appeared that you were the [agency] who sent the message. But how does the system define who takes over leadership in a dangerous situation and when?

Kerb: We develop the emergency alert system in cooperation with various partners, including its channels and activation environment. By law in Estonia, several government agencies are authorized to use this alert and activation system. The authority is somewhat broader when it comes to sending text-based alerts such as SMS messages or app notifications, and quite limited when it comes to activating sirens — which we did not need to do yesterday. That authority lies, for example, with the Rescue Board, the EDF, and the Police and Border Guard Board, but not with most Estonian government agencies.

And the institution that is leading the crisis at a given moment—or that has the best situational awareness and may need to inform people how to act in order to protect their own and their loved ones' lives — is the one responsible for designing the message. They know the area where it needs to be sent, and they decide when it is time to send it. The institution closest to the crisis, or the one with the most relevant expertise, is the one we grant access to the system for sending alerts.

And if we are talking about an air threat, then the best expertise lies with the EDF and the Air Force (Õhuvägi). They know how to assess which area should receive the alert and what its content should be, and yesterday they decided that the instruction was not for everyone to take shelter and remain in basements until the afternoon, but rather for people to stay alert. That was also the reason why they did not activate the siren network.

Exactly — you have to read it very carefully. The message said: if you see one, take cover and call 112. But we come to the issue that the emergency call centers and information lines later became very busy, so it was difficult to get through. So how should a person understand the situation when, on one hand, the sirens have not been activated, but on the other hand they have received such a warning message on their phone? How should this threat level be assessed — or are there multiple levels? This should be as clear as possible, Uku Arold?

Arold: It is worth reading the message carefully to understand what it says. It is actually understandable, from a human perspective, that some people may not have taken the message seriously, and there was a lot of discussion about whether there might be something else behind it or whether it was excessive. In reality, this system has been developed over several years — we have conducted tests, and each time there has been reassuring messaging telling people that we are testing our equipment, checking whether the sirens work and whether messages get through, and that no action is required because it is an exercise.

But now it was needed for real, and this is how confusion arises—people have become used to ignoring such messages during previous drills and exercises when test messages were sent. Now, however, the danger is real, because Russia's military activity has crossed borders — it spread this week to Lithuania and Latvia, and several drones also entered Estonia. If a drone is about to land somewhere imminently, then sirens will also be activated and people will be told to take shelter immediately, without delay.

Right, and later that morning people in Ida-Viru and Lääne-Viru counties received another message: "Air danger! Take shelter!" To what extent were these justified, and what should people do or how should they behave in such a case?

Arold: Yes, that message was misleading for users of the "Ole valmis!" app, and for that I apologize.

The system requires that these messages be entered in multiple places and in three different languages, and a standard text for quickly issuing alerts in the case of acute, high danger is preloaded into the system. In all other input locations, this text was replaced with a more precise instruction — if you see a drone, take cover and report it. However, in one place it was not replaced, and as a result the message appeared more alarming to users of the "Ole valmis!" app. Later messages corrected this.

Let me focus on the word "instructions for behavior." To what extent can just a few words give a person a clear understanding of how to act? For example, when such messages arrive at 8:45 a.m. or even 9:45 a.m. — but people's children are already at kindergarten or school, and they start worrying about them. Argo Kerb, how can someone know how to act based on just a few words or a single sentence?

Kerb: This is exactly why it is very important — as shown by the experience of Israel and Ukraine — that people have thought in advance about how they would act in different crisis situations. If indeed — something I hope never happens — an "Air danger! Take shelter!" ("Õhuoht" "Varjuge!") alert is issued for a region and sirens are activated, then everyone must know that the first and most correct action is to go to the nearest indoor space you can find; move away from windows and walls; go to the lowest possible floor. The same applies in schools, kindergartens, and workplaces. In such a case, if, for example, the Air Force has decided to issue such an alert, then the danger is real, and the best protection is first to take cover and only then seek additional information.

And as for testing, this is exactly why we inform people very extensively in advance — so that no one confuses testing with a real crisis situation when we activate the nationwide siren network and send alerts through all currently available applications. Secondly, this also ensures that no party, whether maliciously or accidentally, can exploit such a situation as an information attack against our society.

These messages advised people to call 112 or 1247, but within a short time the lines became overloaded — either due to confusion or calls from upset individuals. It is possible that some people in genuine need could not get through at that time; the Emergency Response Center (Häirekeskus) even announced this in a press release. Should there be more operators answering calls, or in a crisis situation can one not really rely on that?

The Emergency Response Center does its work very professionally, and with every such alert it is stated that additional information can first be obtained from the state's main crisis information channel, kriis.ee. If, for some reason, a person cannot access or use that source, then it is also possible to call 1247 to ask for more information.

However, the most critical aspect of additional information — and of the alerting process in general — is that sirens, for example, are a tool that is activated as quickly as possible. They are specifically intended to warn people in densely populated areas who are outdoors, as they are the most at risk when the threat is outside. Sirens are activated as quickly as possible when the type of danger requires people to move indoors immediately.

All other notifications may arrive a few seconds or minutes later, and the first reflex, when sirens sound, should be to go indoors and then act according to the message. After a few minutes — perhaps ten — additional information will start appearing on kriis.ee and the "Be Ready" page. The most important information provided on kriis.ee is simply confirmation that the alert has indeed been issued and that it is real, not an accidental or fraudulent notification.

Yes, the information comes in a chain, and that is why immediate alert channels are designed to activate first — but still in a certain sequence. First, one must act according to the initial instructions, and if that instruction is a siren, then go indoors, and only after taking initial shelter should you wait and look for additional information.

Let me return once more to childcare institutions. Did the staff and managers of kindergartens and schools in Narva or Ida-Viru actually notice these messages yesterday, and did they know immediately how to act, or was there confusion?

Kerb: Unfortunately, there was one message that caused confusion. The EDF sent a follow-up clarification, and fortunately this clarifying information was also available through official state channels.

But we know today that all schools and kindergartens have crisis plans in place, and in those plans they have had to think through and define their sheltering procedures. If they ever find themselves in a real situation — which, again, we hope never happens — where people in a certain area are instructed to take shelter, then those schools and kindergartens must act according to that crisis alert in exactly the same way.

Uku Arold, what has the EDF learned from yesterday's situation?

Arold: We have learned how to better prepare people; we have seen that some technical aspects need improvement, and that things need to be practiced through.

I would not want to draw a dividing line suggesting that there is the state issuing alerts on one side and the media merely commenting on events on the other. In reality, Estonia's free media plays a very important — perhaps even more important — role than individual messages or app notifications, because it is through journalism that situations are interpreted and explained in more depth than a short message limited to under 200 characters allows.

It seems to me that yesterday the explanations ultimately reached people in a fairly thorough way.

Okay, but to conclude, Argo Kerb: we have had emergency alert drills, but yesterday was a genuinely serious situation. Is there not a risk of a "boy who cried wolf" effect — where repeated warnings lead people not to take a real dangerous situation seriously? How can people recognize when a threat is truly serious?

Kerb: If it is not stated that it is a test — which we always announce very early and very clearly — then any warning alert must be taken seriously. All our neighboring countries conduct tests of their systems. For example, Finland tests its siren network monthly — this is necessary both for technical reliability and to keep people's behavior preparedness sharp.

But when an alert is issued about a dangerous situation along with instructions on how to protect yourself or others, those instructions must be followed. Yesterday, for example, an SMS sent by the EDF reached all people in both Lääne-Viru and Ida-Viru counties within ten minutes. The correct response, according to the instruction — if you see a drone, go indoors and call 112 — was to act accordingly, and I believe that people who received it did understand this.

But what about people who do not have smartphones or who do not have these apps enabled?

Kerb: That is precisely why the emergency alert system is multilayered and why we continue to develop it. But there is another principle that applies in both Israel and Ukraine. In Israel, for example, it is even stated on public leaflets: think about the people around you — those living next to you or walking ahead of you. If air raid sirens are activated in the area and someone in front of you is wearing headphones, tap them on the shoulder and inform them. Or, if you know your neighbor is elderly and may not listen to the radio or check their phone regularly — or at all — then think of your neighbor and knock on their door. Because in such situations, we do not think only about ourselves, but about everyone around us.

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