Ukraine's mass drone strikes on the Russian port of Ust-Luga overnight Tuesday to Wednesday was the largest military operation seen near Estonia's border in recent times,

Ukraine struck Russian targets in the Leningrad oblast in three waves, while in addition to the stray drone that hit the Auvere chimney, other drones involved in the attack also violated Estonian airspace.

"The particular feature of last night was that the attack we witnessed was the most massive operation in modern Estonia to have taken place in the immediate vicinity of our borders. It likely involved at least around 100 drones sent toward targets in three separate waves. This is a lesson we also see in Ukraine: By saturating air defense, some drones get through to their targets and achieve an effect. So what happened was massive," Merilo told "Esimene stuudio."

Those drones that did enter Estonian airspace, mostly over the sea, followed a "strange" trajectory, which may have been a feint, but which did not pose any threat to Estonia, Merilo noted.

"The drone that hit the Auvere chimney — we must grasp how close the Auvere power plant is to the national border; it's about two kilometers as the crow flies. There was no prior warning for that situation, and the response time for this kind of incident is essentially nonexistent," he said.

It is not yet possible to say with certainty what type of drone it was, Merilo went on, reiterating his comments earlier on Wednesday that it may have been an attack or decoy variety. "It may have been an attack drone whose warhead simply did not function as intended. But the most likely hypothesis today is that it was a decoy drone. Both Ukraine and Russia use decoy drones extensively to exhaust air defense systems," Merilo continued.

The response time from such a short distance is about two minutes, and peacetime conditions impose their own limitations on shooting down drones, Merilo noted. "In peacetime, downing is essentially impossible, given the capabilities currently available to the defense forces. Perhaps future technologies will allow this at shorter distances. We must understand that under no circumstances can we fire toward Russia in peacetime, risking unintended escalation," he explained.

EDF chief: In a conflict situation we would surely lose Auvere

Merilo noted that anyone looking at the map can see that countering drones that arrive without warning like that seen in the Auvere case is a serious issue, essentially making the plant indefensible in a wartime situation.

"A frank assessment would be that in a wartime situation we would certainly lose the Auvere plant, no matter how many resources we invest in its defense," Merilo conceded.

The plant's proximity to the national border is an inherent risk, though that risk can also be mitigated by means other than direct military ones, he noted. For example, basic fortification work could be carried out so that critical infrastructure can withstand initial strikes.

"Concrete, sandbagging, netting, and other measures that we see as lessons from Ukraine. I argue that carrying out such work is not the task of the defense forces, nor even a matter for the defense budget, but rather basic protection of critical infrastructure in a situation where that infrastructure is too close to the threat," Merilo said.

NATO fighter jets, reportedly scrambled from Ämari Wednesday, would have been able to respond fully to the drone threat if the objects had come farther into Estonia airspace. "Specifically for protecting Auvere, fighter jets were useless," the EDF commander noted.

Merilo: Air defense is not 'the hand of God'

Drones can get through even the best air defense systems, so therefore one must always be prepared to deal with the consequences, Merilo noted.

"The kind of naive dream that we could build some kind of dome that protects us all from every threat at all times — that is not technologically possible, not even today. And in the future it would be so expensive that it would be impossible. By combining active and passive measures, we can certainly improve in the near term, but we must always take into account that if the threat comes from the air, it may reach its target or fall on its own," he said.

"Air defense, no matter how effective, is not the 'hand of God' that catches a threat in the air and places it safely somewhere. If we shoot down drones, they still fall somewhere and in any case pose a danger," Merilo added.

Modern counter-drone systems, including those used by the EDF, have not yet proven themselves in real combat conditions, the commander noted.

"We have tested them, but they have not yet been used in real combat. But with all the systems we talk about, there is more talk than real solutions, and all working solutions are in such high demand that their delivery times are much longer than we would like," Merilo concluded.

Air Force chief: Drone was not downed due to proximity to Russian border

Estonian Air Force (Õhuvägi) commander Brig. Gen. Riivo Valge meanwhile confirmed to "Aktuaalne kaamera" the drone which struck the Auvere chimney was not shot down, due to the proximity to the border.

That made response times needed too short, and also in a peacetime situation in Estonia, Ukraine is not sharing its detailed attack plans with Estonia nor giving prior notification, Valge said.

The drone would have covered the couple of kilometers from the Russian border to the Auvere power station in just a couple of minutes, Valge noted.

He added the drone could have been either straying off its path or a guided variety, something which will be established in the investigation into the incident.

"According to the most likely version, it was a stray Ukrainian drone that ended up completely by chance on top of the chimney," Valge said.

Valge confirmed the EDF, which the Air Force is an integrated component of, has undertaken additional measures to be better prepared for similar incidents going forward, while the EDF command group remains on high readiness.

NATO jets based at Ämari got involved in Wednesday's incident too, but the aircraft, from the Italian air force, maintained sufficient distance from the border zone to avoid inadvertently precipitating an overreaction or escalation. The pilots were at full readiness to intervene if more drones had entered further into Estonian territory, Valge said.

As for Estonia's counter-drone capability, Valge noted that the capability is there, and the "current capability is better than it was some time ago, and with various procurements and plans being implemented, it will continue to improve further."

The Ukrainian drone waves were aimed at closing down the Ust-Luga port, used for supplying Russia's shadow fleet vessels, and were successful in doing so at least for the time being, according to media reports.

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