Col. Ants Kiviselg said that the past week in Ukraine has been characterized by somewhat reduced combat activity, but also by intensifying long-range precision strikes by both sides in the conflict.

Kiviselg also noted that the ending week has been relatively difficult for Russia. "Due to Ukraine's successful long-range attacks, Russia's oil market has taken a hit and ports in the Gulf of Finland have halted operations. This means that, at least temporarily, revenue from oil products will decline, reducing financial support for military aggression in Ukraine," Kiviselg said.

According to Kiviselg, an average of 165 combat engagements took place per day over the past week. "The highest figures were again seen in the Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka directions in Donetsk Oblast, as well as in the Hulyaipole direction in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. These were followed by the Sloviansk and Southern Slobozhanske directions in Kharkiv Oblast," he said.

Kiviselg said that Russian Federation forces have made some progress in the Sloviansk direction, but due to Ukraine's active defensive operations and counterattacks, Ukrainian forces have managed to push the front line back eastward again in the Kostyantynivka, Sloviansk and Hulyaipole directions.

"In the Sloviansk direction, both sides have made certain advances, which highlights the importance of Sloviansk for both parties. Control of Sloviansk would make it possible to fully capture the Donbas regions, which is why it is of critical importance to both sides," Kiviselg said.

Massive Russian losses

According to Col. Kiviselg, in just over a week of offensive operations, the armed forces of the Russian Federation have lost more than 11,000 troops, nearly 80 units of armored equipment and over 300 artillery pieces and rocket launchers.

"At that cost, the Russians have captured approximately 50 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. According to Ukraine's military leadership, their effective defensive operations and counteroffensives have completely halted Russian advances in some directions. It can be said that the Russian Federation achieved only modest success at a very high cost," he said.

"Against this backdrop, the Russians carried out the largest air attack of the war, which began on the night of March 23 and continued into the daytime on March 24. During that period, the Russian side launched 948 drones and 34 missiles. This is significantly higher than usual. In previous weeks, the number of attack drones has ranged between 1,200 and 1,300 over the course of an entire week, but this total was essentially reached in a single day," Kiviselg said.

According to Kiviselg, the main targets of the attacks continued to be Ukraine's critical infrastructure and civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine's precision long-range strikes

Kiviselg said that Ukraine's long-range precision strikes this time also reached the Baltic Sea region where the oil ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga were targeted. Russian fuel industry companies and infrastructure were also struck in Saratov and Samara oblasts, as well as in the Republic of Bashkortostan.

"Russia's chemical industry facilities were hit in Stavropol Krai and Samara Oblast and energy infrastructure in Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. Of particular note is the strike on a facility in Sevastopol belonging to the Almaz-Antey concern, which is involved in the repair of S-300 and S-400 air defense missile systems. Ukrainian forces also carried out a successful strike in Crimea against coastal defense missile systems that were likely being redeployed in the area," Kiviselg said.

"Ukraine's strikes on Russian ports in the Baltic Sea halted Russia's oil exports through those ports. This is certainly a significant blow for Russia, as 40 to 50 percent of its crude oil products are exported via the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk. At least in the short term, Russia's revenue has therefore suffered a notable setback. This comes at a time when improving ice conditions and higher oil prices would otherwise allow for more active and profitable use of these ports. This shows that the Ukrainians chose the timing of the attack very well," Kiviselg added.

Stray drones not meant for Estonia

Kiviselg noted that, in connection with Ukraine's drone attacks on the Baltic Sea ports, disinformation has been spreading in Russian media claiming that Estonia or other Baltic states had allowed Ukraine to use their airspace for drone strikes. "This is certainly not true. The drones that entered Estonian airspace on the night of March 25 came here from Russian airspace," Kiviselg said.

"According to current information, none of these drones were directed at Estonia; they had simply gone off course or been diverted," he added.

According to Kiviselg, alongside Ukraine's long-range strikes, Russia has also intensified its attacks on Ukrainian ports.

"While in 2025 the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk were attacked 150 times, already 180 such attacks have been carried out this year alone. Considering these developments and the ongoing technical advancement of aerial attack systems, there is reason to assess that in 2026 the intensity, effectiveness and role of long-range precision strikes in influencing the adversary will increase further," Kiviselg said.

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