Recently announced plans to cut U.S. troop levels in Europe to pre-Ukraine invasion levels are crystallizing and moving from the political to the military level, Pevkur said in an interview given to "Välisilm."

How much additional information is available now about these U.S. troop reshuffles?

What is clear is that this isn't major news, since as early as a year ago, or a little more, President Trump said the U.S. military posture in Europe would be reduced. It seems that those clear plans are now moving from the political level to the military level. Moreover, it appears that the Poland news is connected to the Germany news — not some additional add-on — although every day brings more information.

On Tuesday, the Estonian Defense Forces commander will also meet with the Supreme Allied Commander Europe. We will get more information, and when Poland's defense minister visits Estonia at the end of the week, we will also be able to discuss among ourselves what our next steps will be and what information is coming from Washington.

Do I understand correctly that the 5,000 soldiers who were supposed to leave Germany — that decision was effectively made for Poland instead?

This concerns Europe as a whole. President Trump's message about withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany was a reaction to one of Chancellor Merz's statements. A solution has to be found now on how to conduct that withdrawal, and from the U.S. side — from the Pentagon's perspective — Europe is certainly being viewed as a whole. Will it remain this way permanently? I know that the Polish government is working very intensively not only with Americans based in Poland but also with Americans in Washington, while the Poles in Washington are working very intensively to either have the decision reconsidered or clarify what the exact force structure in Poland and along the entire eastern flank will be.

So was it seen as easier in every respect to cancel the Poland rotation than to withdraw troops from Germany?

Various aspects have to be taken into account, as people at the Pentagon are surely capable of calculating everything — the cost of one rotation, the cost of withdrawing existing units — and it must be borne in mind that existing units are on so-called long rotations, meaning they are here for four or five years, with their families, if we take Germany as the example. Soon the same will apply, for example, to the German brigade in Lithuania: troops will come with their families and stay on long rotations.

If we are talking about shorter rotations, such as those in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania, those deployments are for around nine months, maybe seven months, maybe 11 months, but anyway less than a year. It is clear that moving this entire military apparatus around is very expensive. So various ways are certainly being calculated to achieve the political objective of reducing troop numbers in Europe quickly, while also making it acceptable to America's own armed forces.

What is the situation with Estonia?

There is not much information here. What we do know is that U.S. forces are in Estonia, and will remain there. No one has told me that any kind of lowering of the U.S. flag in Estonia is going to happen. We have very close cooperation. Even during the ongoing Spring Storm exercise, units are cooperating closely. Naturally, the main focus is on the British and the French, but the Americans are also part of Estonia's national defense.

But we cannot rule out that such surprising decisions could also affect us?

History has shown that no decision can really be ruled out — one thing can be true one morning and another the next. Our task is to remain in contact with the Americans, and that is what we are doing. Even today, people in Washington are dealing with this on a daily basis in order to get as much information as possible from the Pentagon.

However, getting much information there is not easy, or that information only materializes at the very last moment. The main conclusion, however, is that Europe has to invest significantly more in its own defense. Europe needs to build up capabilities relating to satellites, intelligence, and deep-strike capabilities on its own, because there is no other way.

Has the hope now completely disappeared that the Americans might still add something to the eastern flank?

No, because the United States European Command's (EUCOM) plan — known as the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative — has not disappeared anywhere. They are also looking at deep-strike capabilities, something which has been built and planned for some time. Naturally, this involves ourselves, our European allies, plus the Americans, but it is still a little early to say exactly what it will look like. One thing I can say with considerable confidence is that the American flag will not be disappearing from Estonia.

What is the current situation with HIMARS ammunition?

Some of the news on HIMARS has been good. The issue of ammunition for training should be resolved, and the U.S. should start supplying us with training rounds. As for the main ammunition stockpiles, we have heard that the Pentagon is prepared to review the issue, but there is no precise message yet. In the case of Javelins, however, there is no longer any issue there at all — the only unresolved question that remains concerns HIMARS main ammunition.

Background

Last week the announcement was made that around 4,000 troops from the Army's 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team slated to deploy to Poland would now no longer be doing so. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has also signed a memo ordering a brigade combat team to be removed from Europe, and a separate deployment to Germany involving a long-range rocket and missile battalion was also canceled.

President Donald Trump's plan to reduce U.S. troop levels in Europe by about 5,000, or roughly pre-2022 levels, comes at a time of tensions between Trump and European allies over the Iran war and NATO spending. Germany had already been mentioned in this context, but Poland being brought into the picture has led to confusion, since Poland has one of the highest levels of defense spending as a percentage of GDP of all NATO member states and is a key eastern flank ally. The last-minute announcement also caused confusion since some deployments to Poland were in the pipeline, and critics of the move have said it sends a weak signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, the Iran war has significantly depleted U.S. missile stockpiles, particularly Tomahawk, Patriot, and other long-range weapons, which might take years to replenish.

Last month, ERR News reported that U.S. delays in defense deliveries had already been affecting Estonia's ammunition supplies for the M142 HIMARS rocket system, with deliveries scheduled for this year delayed, again due to the Iran war.

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