Ratings analysts: Center Party surge could reshape ties with Isamaa
Rising support for Estonia's Center Party could reshape its relationship with Isamaa, analysts say, as the two parties run nearly neck and neck in the polls.
Friday's discussion of the latest party ratings, featuring Kantar Emor survey chief Aivar Voog and ERR journalists Urmet Kook and Indrek Kiisler, highlighted a shifting political landscape with no clear frontrunner.
Kook noted the opposition Center Party's support has been steadily rising and is now within one percentage point of the likewise opposition Isamaa. Among non-Estonian voters, he added, support for Center has reached 74 percent.
Voog said the situation mirrors late 2023, when Isamaa briefly led the ratings, but added that right now, the two parties are effectively sharing the top spot.
Among non-Estonians, patterns in support also differ sharply by gender.
Voog said support for Center among non-Estonian women is close to 80 percent, compared with under 70 percent among men. While women overwhelmingly favor the Center Party, men's preferences are more varied, including support for the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and Isamaa.
Broader gender divide
Kook asked whether the trend could be linked to Center MP Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart's rise in parliamentary politics.
Kiisler said he doesn't think so, noting that other figures, such as fellow Center MP Lauri Laats, are just as visible.
"It seems Estonia's parties are increasingly splitting along gender lines, with some parties clearly favored by women and others by men," he said.
Support for the opposition Social Democrats (SDE), Kiisler noted, stands at 20.5 percent among women and just 6.5 percent among men, while the pattern is nearly reversed for EKRE, with 19.9 percent support among men and 8.4 percent among women.
"This suggests more hardline and radical approaches don't appeal to women," he added.
Kook echoed that women tend to favor more socially liberal parties, including the coalition Reform Party, the SDE and Center, while Isamaa and EKRE are more popular among men.
Center boosted by Isamaa
He also noted that the Center Party's support among ethnic Estonians has risen to 12 percent, significantly higher than this time last year.
Voog said that for Center to push its support closer to 30 percent, it would need to gain more backing among Estonian-speaking voters.
Both analysts linked the party's gains in part to its role in forming a governing coalition in Tallinn. Kook said Isamaa had effectively legitimized the Center Party in the eyes of Estonian voters.
Kiisler said that Isamaa had long been seen as the main alternative to Estonia's ruling parties — the Reform Party and Eesti 200 — for voters unwilling to back EKRE. That dynamic may now be shifting.
For a long time, he said, there were doubts about whether the Center Party would even survive.
"But it has, and it's doing better and better all the time," he added, noting that being level with Isamaa may now work in Center's favor.
That shift could complicate future cooperation. Kook asked whether Isamaa would be willing to join a government led by Centre Party chair Mihhail Kõlvart.
Kiisler said that would be difficult.
"From what I've heard from some senior Isamaa figures, Mihhail Kõlvart would have no problem joining a government led by [Isamaa chair] Urmas Reinsalu," he said. "But Isamaa members would have a major issue with joining a Kõlvart-led government."
Reform's hopes unfulfilled
Turning to the Reform Party, Kook said the ruling party's hoped-for gains from tax changes never materialized.
"People may have ended up with more money in their pockets, but it went toward a cold winter and high power bills," he said.
He added that rising prices linked to the war in Iran could further weigh on public sentiment. Asked what options the Reform Party has to boost support, Voog pointed to stability.
"They need to maintain stability and avoid internal conflicts," Kantar Emor's survey chief said. "I don't see a change in leadership bringing any radical improvement right now."
Kiisler added that the expected economic recovery, which the Reform Party has been counting on, also has yet to arrive.
According to Voog, politics surrounding Estonia's upcoming presidential election may influence party ratings, though the outlook is uncertain.
The party that manages to nominate a strong presidential candidate could gain support, he said, "but right now, the situation has become so contentious and toxic that it's hard for parties to score any extra points on it."
Estonia's next presidential election will be held this fall.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Aili Vahtla
