Kantar Emor survey expert Aivar Voog opened the program by noting that there are no major changes in party support percentages this time around.

"Apparently, there hasn't been any significant driving factor or those factors have balanced each other out. What the Reform Party and the governing coalition had hoped for — that income tax changes would leave people with more money in hand — had its positive effect certainly offset by a cold January and a sharp rise in electricity prices," Voog said.

Urmet Kook nevertheless highlighted the domestic political dispute between the president and the foreign minister, adding ironically that thanks to it, Eesti 200 had doubled its support from 1 percent to 2 percent.

Anvar Samost responded that in reality the increase remains within the margin of error. "I can't imagine what kind of public conflict Eesti 200 would have to stir up, or with whom it would have to pick a fight, to rise from 2 percent to, say, 5 percent, which would already be a significant change. It seems unfeasible," Samost said.

"As for attacking President Alar Karis by Eesti 200 Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, from the outset it seemed short-sighted in terms of political tactics," Samost added.

Voog noted that Karis' trust rating measured in February was around 60 percent.

Samost pointed out that seeking confrontation can boost ratings if the opposing side is, for example, a larger party. "But if you go up against a person with significantly greater support, the likely result is the opposite. It will reduce your own support," he said.

Kook observed that the Reform Party had initially also been critical of Karis' messages to foreign media, but then suddenly changed its tone. "At one point, as if cut with scissors, the issue disappeared," Kook said.

Kook asked Samost whether he agreed with Voog that the Reform Party had hoped for a positive effect from the tax changes introduced at the start of the year.

"Of course they hoped... I think the positive effect the Reform Party expected when it introduced the rise in the tax-free income threshold as a gift to everyone was absorbed by other factors, including the high energy costs Aivar mentioned. Most likely the issue is that the overall image of the government and the Reform Party is not something that can be permanently improved with a single advertising campaign and a tax change," Samost said.

Kook added that it may have been unfortunate for the Reform Party that the tax change took effect in winter. "With hindsight, you could say that if they had known such cold weather was coming, they could have done it in summer. Then people would have had more money left over and the picture around Midsummer would have looked nicer," Kook said.

Speaking about support for the Social Democratic Party, Kook said it appears their rise in support has come from Tallinn.

A snowy winter is always a very bad period for parties in power in Tallinn, Voog noted.

At the same time, Kook said he is personally very satisfied with the city's snow removal, as sidewalks are mostly clean.

Voog said the Social Democrats have certainly been very active and the media quote them in connection with every city government comment, whether it is Jevgeni Ossinovski or Vladimir Svet. "The Social Democrats have been very visible," Voog said.

Samost added that the Social Democrats are also prominent in Estonia's Russian-language media on city government issues. "Given Tallinn's national composition, that is also very important," he said.

Kook pointed out that the most interesting development for the Social Democrats this week is talk of the possibility that the Reform Party may want to bring them back into the government in some way. "What should the Social Democrats do in such a case? As we remember, they were thrown out of the government amid ridicule, accused of slowing down good decisions and creating ideological ambiguity. It was promised that a strong right-wing government would be formed and the right decisions made so that ratings would rise. In reality, the combined rating of the two governing parties remains at 14–15 percent — it is not rising. The Social Democrats, however, have begun to creep upward quietly, so why should they go back into the same government?" Kook asked.

"There are certainly people among the Social Democrats who believe participating in government would in some sense be beneficial. But considering how forcefully party chairman Lauri Läänemets has communicated his unwillingness to enter the government as a third wheel, it seems that a decision has rather been made not to do so," Samost added.

Voog emphasized that at least before summer, the Social Democrats are unlikely to join the government.

In Kook's assessment, the Center Party has defined the Social Democrats as its main competitor both in Tallinn and at the national level.

Samost said that even the criminal investigation into Läänemets' cash payments has not affected the party's support. Kook suggested that the impact may emerge if the matter were to lead to the lifting of Läänemets' parliamentary immunity.

Discussing support for EKRE, Kook said they at one point vied for second place and were near 20 percent, but are now steadily at 13 percent. He asked why they appear to be running out of steam.

"The main reason is Isamaa. EKRE's support was above 20 percent when Isamaa was close to 5 percent," Voog said, suggesting former EKRE backers have gravitated toward Isamaa.

Samost added that EKRE appears to be experiencing some fatigue. "It may also be that many of the issues EKRE has talked about for years — apart from the [same-sex] marriage issue, which has dropped off the agenda — are now on the table for other parties as well. Criticism regarding energy, economic growth, taxes or immigration is now voiced by everyone, even the Social Democrats. That bread and butter has completely disappeared from their hands," Samost said.

Samost noted that rigidity within EKRE's leadership regarding participation in local government coalitions has also put the party in a difficult position.

"Just a couple of days ago there was news that the governing coalition in Saaremaa Municipality is starting to fall apart because EKRE has made ultimatum-like demands concerning the reorganization of the school network. If they prove uncompromising in such alliances, what we have seen before may happen again: they get into power, but then [party leaders] Mart and Martin Helme intervene from Tallinn in local decisions and the result is exclusion from the coalition," Samost said.

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