On May 2, 2018 — ten months before the 2019 parliamentary elections — a manifesto appeared in Postimees, authored by Priit Alamäe, Indrek Nuume, Küllike Hein, Kristina Kallas and Kristiina Tõnnison.

"We propose forming a political movement bringing together people who wish to contribute to Estonia's development, with the aim of offering ideological competition and bold ideas to the current political parties in building a better Estonia. Our goal is to look beyond a single election cycle — only then is it possible to build a 200-year Estonia," the manifesto stated.

In the same passage of the manifesto, the public was given its first hint of the future party's name, Eesti 200.

In August, Margus Tsahkna, who had previously led IRL but had since left it, announced he would join the then non-profit organization Eesti 200. He expressed hope that Eesti 200 would become a political party and take part in the following year's parliamentary elections.

In September, Kantar Emor included Eesti 200 in its party support survey for the first time. The initial result of 4 percent did not yet exceed the electoral threshold but was promising for a start.

On November 3, 2018, the political party Eesti 200 was officially founded. Kristina Kallas was elected its first chair and the board included, among others, Margus Tsahkna. The party also decided to run in the 2019 parliamentary elections.

That same month, the party's rating rose to 8 percent.

On January 14, 2019, Lauri Hussar, editor-in-chief of Postimees, announced he was leaving the paper to run for parliament on Eesti 200's list. Hussar and Tsahkna are relatives. Asked about the party's ideology, Hussar said: "I would venture that Eesti 200 is rather a liberal-conservative party."

In the 2019 parliamentary elections, however, the party failed to cross the electoral threshold. It received 4.4 percent of the vote nationwide, leaving it narrowly but clearly below the threshold.

One of the campaign's major missteps was the party's advertisements at the Hobujaama tram stop, which directed Estonian- and Russian-speaking passengers to wait on different sides of the platform. Eesti 200 chair Kristina Kallas explained that the posters were meant to demonstrate how a single sign can divide society.

The idea may have been well-intentioned, but many did not understand it. By the following morning, the posters had been replaced, but the damage had already been done.

At the same time, the party's rating rose to 10–12 percent in Kantar Emor polls after the elections. This may in part have been driven by the rather unexpected governing coalition formed by the Center Party, Isamaa and EKRE, which Eesti 200 positioned itself against.

In the European Parliament elections held in May of the same year, Eesti 200 failed to send a representative to Brussels, though these elections were not crucial for the party's future. Eesti 200 received 10,706 votes, or 3.2 percent — a weaker result than in the parliamentary elections (4.4 percent). Kristina Kallas garnered 4,773 votes, while the party's lead candidate Lauri Hussar received 3,078 votes.

More important was that the party remain united and deliver a promising result in the 2021 local elections.

And so it did: in local elections, the party received 35,351 votes nationwide, or 6 percent of the vote — a better result than the Social Democrats running under their own list.

As Eesti 200 secured representation in both Tallinn and Tartu city councils, public perception of the party as having achieved a breakthrough and becoming a serious political force took hold. This was crucial with an eye on the next parliamentary elections and gave supporters confidence that Eesti 200 could be a viable choice.

Hussar unexpectedly replaces Kallas

In February 2022, Eesti 200 rose for the first and so far only time to become Estonia's most popular party in Kantar Emor surveys, with 21 percent support. In reality, four parties were essentially tied: the Reform Party, Center Party and EKRE each had 20 percent support.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, reshuffled the deck not only in global security but also in Estonian politics. Support for the Reform Party, led by Kaja Kallas, rose steadily amid its resolute response, surpassing 30 percent by May.

Initially, Eesti 200's rating also remained high. Unlike Reform, however, it began to decline gradually over the following summer — falling from 21 percent in April to 13 percent in July and 11 percent by September.

Doubts and uncertainties emerged within the party. Questions were raised about whether it was right to head into elections under Kristina Kallas' leadership with declining support. There was also speculation about the personal opposition of a major party donor.

Having led the party for four years, Kristina Kallas understandably wanted to take it into the elections herself. It therefore came as a major surprise to her when Lauri Hussar was put forward as an alternative candidate in the leadership race.

Further complicating matters was Hendrik Johannes Terras, chair of the party's youth organization Noored Eesti 200, who also announced his candidacy. However, at the general assembly on October 15, 2022, Terras withdrew and urged his supporters to vote for Hussar.

In the vote, Lauri Hussar received 101 votes from party members, while Kristina Kallas garnered 94. It is possible Kallas underestimated internal opposition. Among Eesti 200 members in Tartu who supported her, the episode left lingering resentment, with suspicions of coordination between Hussar and Terras from the outset.

That same evening, the party's new leader Lauri Hussar appeared on "Aktuaalne kaamera" news and pledged to aim for 20 seats in parliament and to bring the party into government.

"I am absolutely certain that we will achieve a surprising result in these elections. In every debate, I have said we will win 20 seats. I have not backed down from that goal," he said.

At the time Hussar became chair, the party's support stood at 14 percent in Kantar Emor surveys. The party had 907 members.

Strong election result followed by rapid fading

Under Lauri Hussar's leadership, Eesti 200 entered the 2023 parliamentary elections, winning 13.3 percent of the vote and securing 14 seats in the Riigikogu. The party entered government and Hussar himself became speaker of parliament in April.

While the result fell short of Hussar's publicly stated goal, Eesti 200 was still among the election's winners, having made it into government. This was reflected in rising support: in a survey conducted in March immediately after the elections, the party's rating climbed to 16 percent and reached 17 percent in April.

In 2023, Eesti 200 also received the largest amount of donations among Estonian political parties, totaling €815,518 — mainly ahead of the elections.

Everything seemed promising and full of potential.

But the good times did not last long. Eesti 200's most successful candidate in the parliamentary elections was Johanna-Maria Lehtme, who received 5,260 votes. She had been named Citizen of the Year, Woman of the Year, European of the Year and Postimees' Person of the Year. However, she was not actually a member of the party.

At the end of April, a scandal erupted over the use of funds by the NGO Slava Ukraini, led by Lehtme. As the scandal broke, Eesti 200 clearly chose a position supportive of Lehtme and critical of the media. Such views were publicly expressed by Marek Reinaas, Margus Tsahkna and others.

The scandal continued to escalate and on April 19, Lehtme announced she would resign from the Riigikogu. On the same day, Marek Reinaas sent a letter to Eesti 200 members continuing to blame the media — a letter that, unsurprisingly, was leaked.

"Our parliamentary group member Johanna-Maria Lehtme has for some time been the target of a media campaign accusing her of misusing Slava Ukraini's finances. /.../ Johanna herself says the accusations are unfounded," Reinaas wrote. Party leader Lauri Hussar, meanwhile, adopted a more neutral, mediating role when speaking to journalists in Kadriorg.

It is understandable that the party found it difficult to withdraw support from someone who had contributed so significantly to its electoral success. However, the scandal and the conduct of Eesti 200 politicians during it had a strongly negative impact on the party's rating.

From 17 percent in April before the scandal, the party's support fell to 13 percent in May, 9 percent in June and 7 percent by August — a 2.5-fold drop in just a few months.

On June 20, 2023, the Riigikogu passed amendments to the Family Law Act tied to a vote of confidence in the government, granting same-sex couples the legal right to marry. This was one of Eesti 200's major ideological victories, as there had initially been opposition to the plan even within the Reform Party.

On August 23, a scandal over Russian-related business activities erupted around Kaja Kallas. Although it primarily concerned the Reform Party, Eesti 200 — similarly to the Lehtme case — took a stance defending Kallas and criticizing the media. For example, the Social Democrats did not express such unequivocal loyalty. This political choice may also have contributed to Eesti 200's declining support.

Naturally, this was particularly discouraging for the party's leadership. In November, Lauri Hussar announced he would step down as party chair — a year before his term was set to end. He admitted he had been considering the move for several months, citing a desire to focus on his role as speaker of parliament.

On November 19, 2023, Margus Tsahkna was elected the new leader of Eesti 200. His victory over challenger Arko Okk was decisive: Tsahkna received 112 votes to Okk's 14.

That same evening, Tsahkna appeared on "Aktuaalne kaamera" and said the leadership change would shift the party into a higher gear.

"Eesti 200 has quite a few gears left. Today we shifted into the next one — I have taken over leadership with my experience, perhaps with a more concrete vision and believe me, Eesti 200 still has several gears ahead," he said.

November 2024 was also the month when Isamaa first rose to become the most popular party.

Tsahkna's leadership did not bring the hoped-for improvement. Two months later, in January, Eesti 200's support fell below the electoral threshold for the first time, to 4 percent — the same level as the extra-parliamentary party Parempoolsed at the time.

For half a year, the party hovered around the electoral threshold. In June 2024, however, its support fell to 3 percent for the first time and it has not risen above the threshold since.

Disaster at European Parliament elections

In the European Parliament elections held in June 2024, Eesti 200 suffered a crushing defeat. The party received 2.6 percent of the vote, totaling 9,587 votes. Of these, the largest share — 2,256 votes — came from non-party candidate Indrek Tarand, who ran as the list's anchor candidate.

Lead candidate Margus Tsahkna received 1,416 votes, which was a weak result given his position as foreign minister. In addition to Tarand, Kalev Stoicescu, Kristina Kallas and Hendrik Johannes Terras all outperformed him.

As a logical consequence, Tsahkna decided to step down as party leader. Moreover, neither he nor Riigikogu speaker Lauri Hussar sought a place on Eesti 200's new leadership board. Hussar announced he would run only for the position of chair of the party's court of honor at an extraordinary general assembly, but he lost decisively to the little-known Mait Kornet.

Kristina Kallas and Hendrik Johannes Terras competed for the party leadership. Kallas won decisively in the August 31, 2024 election, receiving 172 votes to Terras' 57.

At that point, the party had 801 members and its support stood at 4 percent in Kantar Emor polls.

Returning for a second term as leader, Kallas expressed confidence that voter support would recover if the party succeeded in asserting itself in government.

"Trust will be restored when a party that has received a mandate to implement certain changes actually begins to carry them out. We currently have all the tools to do so. When these changes start to materialize, voter trust will also return," Kallas said.

Kallas also criticized the Social Democrats, saying they had chosen the role of an internal opposition within the government in pursuit of popularity. Eesti 200 would not take that approach, she said.

Kallas' return to the leadership — after having previously been forced to step aside following the Hussar–Terras alignment — created renewed expectations and hope for the party's revival. However, support did not increase and remained at around three to four percent.

In September 2024, the party's founder and one of the authors of its founding manifesto, Priit Alamäe, left the party, citing conspiracy theories surrounding his involvement with Eesti 200.

Over time, Alamäe had supported Eesti 200 with a total of €438,200 of his own money. But his substantive role had been even greater, making his departure all the more symbolic and painful.

While Eesti 200 had received the most donations among political parties in 2023, contributions dried up in 2024, with the party receiving just €16,094. It continues to rely largely on state funding.

Evicting SDE from government fails to turn fortunes around

In March 2025, the Social Democrats were pushed out of the government. Leading politicians from the Reform Party and Eesti 200 said it had been the Social Democrats who had prevented the government from implementing right-wing policies and necessary decisions.

For the Reform Party, the government's lead party, removing the Social Democrats initially had a positive effect. Its support, which had fallen to 14 percent, rose to 17–18 percent for a couple of months. By July, however, it had dropped back to 14 percent and in August it fell even lower than before the Social Democrats were removed, to just 11 percent.

Eesti 200, meanwhile, saw no such temporary relief in its ratings.

This undoubtedly proved discouraging and one outlet for the frustration became journalists who dared to ask critical questions of Eesti 200 politicians, particularly ministers.

In local elections held in October of the same year, the party ran under its own name in only a handful of municipalities. In Tallinn, it clearly failed to enter the city council, receiving just 2.8 percent of the vote. In Tartu, however, it managed to secure representation despite skepticism — largely thanks to Kristina Kallas' strong personal result. The party won three seats, the same number as EKRE.

Nationwide, however, the result was a major disappointment: the party received just 1.7 percent support, compared with 6 percent four years earlier. A symbolic moment was Lauri Hussar's modest 44 votes in Viimsi — fewer than he had received in the Riigikogu board elections.

In December, Eesti Ekspress reported that Eesti 200 was seeking to avoid disappearing from Estonian politics in the next elections by leaning into value-based conflicts and was even considering a name change.

Party board member Aleksei Jašin expressed hope that Estonians' financial situation would improve in the new year due to tax changes and economic growth. "And then they will start thinking more broadly about society in Maslow's hierarchy," he said.

However, January brought an exceptionally cold winter to Estonia, along with high fuel prices. As if that were not enough, once winter ended, the United States and Israel launched a war in the Middle East, sending oil and gas prices soaring.

It is therefore no surprise that in January 2026, the party's support fell to an all-time low of just 1 percent. In February and March, it has stood at 2 percent. As of March 24, the party had 621 members — nearly 300 fewer than at its peak.

This coming Sunday, Eesti 200 will elect its leader and board. Kristina Kallas is highly likely to be re-elected as party leader, as no internal challenger has emerged.

At the same time, voices within the party have raised the question of whether, if current ratings persist, it should even take part in the parliamentary elections less than a year away. For now, such views are being framed as isolated opinions ahead of the general assembly. But if support remains low after the summer, this line of thinking is likely to gain increasing traction within the party.

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