Center Party catches up to Isamaa in polls
Support for the Center Party rose among non-Estonian voters in March to its highest level in recent years, helping boost the party's overall rating and bringing it close behind Isamaa.
In March, two parties lead the Emor party ratings: Isamaa at 24 percent (unchanged from February) and the Estonian Center Party at 23 percent (up from 21 percent in February).
According to Emor research expert Aivar Voog, the last time the two most popular parties were this evenly matched was in October 2023, when the ratings of the Estonian Reform Party and Isamaa differed by 1.2 percentage points.
"The Center Party last shared first place in February 2022. At that time, there was very little between three parties (Eesti 200, the Center Party and the Reform Party – ed.)," Voog said.
Support for the Center Party among respondents of other nationalities reached a record level in recent years in March, at 74 percent. Among ethnic Estonians, its support has remained stable at 12 percent over the past three months.
In third and fourth place are the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Social Democratic Party (SDE), tied at 14 percent. EKRE slightly increased its support over the month, while the Social Democrats saw a decline.
In fifth place in March was the prime minister's party, the Reform Party, whose support held at 12 percent. The party's rating has been lower only once, when it fell to 11 percent in August last year. The Reform Party last exceeded 20 percent in October 2023 and 30 percent in February of the same year.
The extra-parliamentary Parempoolsed would also clear the electoral threshold with 7 percent, though its support has shown a slight downward trend this year.
Support for Reform's junior coalition partner Eesti 200 stood at 2 percent, the same as for the Estonian Greens. Eesti 200 last exceeded the electoral threshold of 5 percent in May 2024.
Support for the Koos party and the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives party both stood at 1 percent.
The combined rating of the governing coalition was 14 percent in March.
A total of 24 percent of respondents (25 percent in February) were unable to name a preference in March.
When including respondents without a stated preference, 18 percent supported Isamaa, 17 percent the Center Party, 11 percent the Social Democrats, 10 percent EKRE, 9 percent the Reform Party and 5 percent Parempoolsed.
Isamaa leads by a country mile among ethnic Estonians
Among ethnic Estonian respondents, Isamaa ranked first in February with 28 percent. It was followed by the Social Democratic Party at 16 percent, EKRE also at 16 percent, Reform at 14 percent, Center at 12 percent and Parempoolsed at 8 percent.
Among respondents of other nationalities, support for other parties (besides the Center Party) has become marginal — the Social Democrats had 6 percent, EKRE 5 percent and both the Koos party and Isamaa 4 percent each.
Among voters in Tallinn, the most popular party was the Center Party at 35 percent (33 percent in February), followed by the Social Democrats at 20 percent, Isamaa at 14 percent, the Reform Party at 10 percent and Parempoolsed at 8 percent. EKRE's support in Tallinn stood at 5 percent and Eesti 200 at 4 percent.
As in Tallinn, the most popular party in Ida-Virumaa in March was the Center Party, while in other regions of Estonia, Isamaa led.
There are notable differences in the share of male and female voters among party supporters. For example, support for the Social Democrats stands at 21 percent among women but only 7 percent among men. Support for the Center Party is also higher among women (25 percent) than men (20 percent). The Reform Party is likewise more of a "women's party," with support at 14 percent among women and 9 percent among men.
Isamaa and EKRE, by contrast, are clearly more "men's parties." Among men, 29 percent support Isamaa compared with 20 percent of women. EKRE's support stands at 20 percent among men and 8 percent among women.
For Parempoolsed and Eesti 200, there is no significant difference in support based on gender.
Emor surveyed 1,515 voting-age citizens across Estonia between March 9 and 18 via web and telephone. With this sample size, the maximum possible margin of error is ±2.1 percentage points.
The research company previously known as Kantar Emor has operated under the name Emor since February 26. The name change followed a change of ownership and a broader brand update within the international group.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Marcus Turovski
