Voog, from pollsters Kantar Emor, made his remarks on Friday's ratings special, joined by ERR's Anvar Samost and Indrek Kiisler, to go over January's party ratings.

Many Russian-speaking politicians are more visible within Center, in order to ensure that Russian-speaking voters firmly stand behind them, Voog said.

"This has practically always succeeded, save for in the 2019 Riigikogu election. In the recent local elections, Russian-speaking votes once again fell behind the Center Party. When the next Riigikogu elections come around, in 2027, MEP Jaak Madisson, formerly of EKRE, and many other well-known Estonian names will come back under the limelight again. The Center Party knows how to switch direction [along the Estonian- and Russian-speaking voter axis] all too well. They are the only party that has such an opportunity anyway," Kiisler said.

While a significant shift took place in the 2023 Riigikogu elections, when Center's support among voters of other nationalities (meaning Russian-speakers) fell to 40 percent, this raised hopes for greater political diversity in Estonia.

That trend has now completely evaporated, however, Voog argued, noting how representatives of other nationalities have once again become a homogeneous bloc that has almost entirely aligned with supporters of the Center Party. This stable base, where support reaches as high as 72 percent, guarantees the party a steady overall support level of around 20 percent (once the majority Estonian vote is factored in), Voog said.

Among native Estonian speakers, the Center Party's rating is of course considerably lower, at 12 percent, and only began to rally from even lower levels ahead of last October's local elections. Voog explained this in terms of the firm support of the Russian-speaking population providing the party with a stable foundation which allows it to canvass for supplementary backing among Estonian-speaking voters too. In Voog's assessment, the Center Party is currently moving toward its more familiar past support level of 23–26 percent, and provides a far less volatile political situation than does Isamaa.

"The Center Party is moving toward its usual level of 23–26 percent, which it has had in previous Riigikogu elections," Voog said.

Samost, however, stressed a certain peculiarity of brand Center.

"The Center Party's brand among Estonians can never be as attractive as the brand of a so-called classically Estonian party. They should find candidates close to Estonians to bring into the fold. These are not people who could come back from the Social Democratic Party (such as former Center member Tanel Kiik – ed.), as the Center Party would not take them back, even though such a desire has existed. Instead, the Center Party has been looking more towards the right wing, toward EKRE or some other mainstream party," Samost said.

In addition to Madisson, who has already made that switch, we should see more such transfers, Samost went on. "The Center Party's attractiveness in terms of overall support for those politicians who are currently feeling unsure ahead of the Riigikogu elections when looking at their current party's rating, is very high. We will certainly see some transfers there."

In the context of the upcoming presidential elections this autumn, Voog highlighted the need for cooperation among the liberal flank. He noted that much depends on whether liberal parties will be able to join forces and elect the president already in the Riigikogu.

Estonia's presidents are not elected directly by the people, but in the first instance by the Riigikogu. Since a two-thirds majority is required, this means a unifying candidate must be found between parties who together would make up at least that proportion of the 101 Riigikogu seats.

Samost recalled a historical parallel with the election of the late President Arnold Rüütel (in office 2001-2006), when what was then the Rahvaliit party managed, from a low level of support, to bolster its position for several governmental cycles through the institution of the presidency. "Rahvaliit managed to get its so-called man elected as president, and to latch itself, from a very low support base, onto the so-called aura of that president," Samost noted.

At the same time, this may prove harder to pull off in 2026.

"For the Social Democrats, this year of presidential elections may offer a similar opportunity to increase their political weight, but I doubt that that can be repeated, because the times are different," he added.

The presidential elections are in the autumn. The next direct elections take place in March 2027, to the Riigikogu.

The latest Kantar Emor monthly ratings commissioned by ERR are here.

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