Latest Norstat poll has Isamaa inching up, EKRE down
Isamaa and SDE have gained and EKRE lost ground, the latest weekly poll of NGO Institute for Societal Studies and Norstat Eesti AS reveals.
According to the latest results, Isamaa is supported by 28.2 percent of eligible voters, followed by the Center Party at 21.3 percent and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) at 13.9 percent.
They are followed by the Reform Party (12.9 percent), the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (11.7 percent), Parempoolsed (6.7 percent) and Eesti 200 (1.7 percent).
Support for leading party Isamaa has increased by 1.2 percentage points over the past two weeks, while support for EKRE has fallen by 1.4 percentage points during the same period.
The latest aggregate results reflect the survey period from February 23 to March 21. The polls were conducted during the periods Feb. 23–March 1, March 2–7, March 9–15, and March 16–21, with a total of 4,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 and over responding.
In total, 14.6 percent of respondents support parties in the governing coalition, while 75.1 percent support parties in the Riigikogu opposition.
When presenting the results, the Institute for Societal Studies and Norstat Eesti AS focus on the aggregate results of the past four weeks, meaning the sample comprises at least 4,000 people. Voters without a party preference are excluded when calculating the relative support of political parties.
The maximum margin of error depends on the proportion of the largest group. In this survey, supporters of Isamaa formed the largest group, resulting in a margin of error of ±1.64 percent. For other parties, the margin of error is smaller — for example, ±0.47 percent for Eesti 200. Calculating party support in this way smooths out fluctuations seen in individual polls, which can arise from larger statistical error margins or short-term events.
To ensure the sample was as representative as possible, the survey used a combined method of telephone and online polling, with telephone respondents forming the majority. The data was weighted to reflect the proportional distribution of eligible voters based on key sociodemographic characteristics.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Marcus Turovski
