Voog was joined in analyzing the results of Kantar Emor's latest party ratings with ERR journalists Urmet Kook and Anvar Samost. According to Kook, the ratings are notable primarily because, whereas previously the Center Party's ratings had risen thanks to support rising once again among non-Estonian-speaking voters. Now, however, Center have also increased their popularity among ethnic Estonian voters, to 10 percent.

Kantar Emor polling expert Aivar Voog suggested that if the Center Party had won an absolute majority in the local elections in Tallinn, this rise in their ratings may not have happened. "But the fact that they had to choose a stronger coalition partner has made their image more acceptable for Estonians," Voog said.

According to Anvar Samost, entering into a coalition with the Center Party has also had a positive effect on Isamaa.

"The benefits are mutual here. When we look at Isamaa's support among Russian-speaking voters, I can't say historically if Isamaa has ever been their second choice, but it seems to me that it has never been the case before," Samost said.

"They legitimize each other. The biggest message is always action, and in this case, that action has been the formation of a joint coalition in Tallinn, the capital, which is very much in the spotlight. The Center Party has sent a message to Russian-speaking people in Estonia that, from their point of view, Isamaa is a worthy partner, and Isamaa has sent a similar message to Estonian-speaking voters," Samost added.

At the same time, he emphasized that the Center Party's voice is definitely louder among Russian-speaking voters than Isamaa's voice is among Estonian-speaking voters.

Kook pointed out that Isamaa's support is second among non-ethnic Estonian voters, though it is still only 7 percent, while other parties have 3-4 percent. "I would not draw any fundamental conclusions from this rating, because support for all parties is very low," he said.

However, Samost emphasized that historically, Isamaa's support among Russian-speaking voters has been close to zero.

Kook asked Voog whose expense the Center Party's rise among Estonian-speaking voters has come at.

Support for the Social Democratic Party (SDE) among Russian-speaking voters is currently at 4 percent. According to Voog, in the middle of last year, support for the SDE was more or less equal among Estonian-speaking voters and non-ethnic Estonian voters – at over 10 percent.

"Now they have clearly lost that position. They have become the preferred party of ethnic Estonians and marginal among non-ethnic Estonians," Voog said.

Samost said there are two major reasons for this. "The Russian Orthodox Church bill and the voting rights of Russian citizens. The party's chair, Lauri Läänemets, was the interior minister at the time when both of those bills were drafted and passed by the Riigikogu. These two issues were enough," Samost pointed out.

Kook added that the SDE are no longer the party of the mayor of Tallinn.

Regarding support for the Reform Party, Kook said it has risen slightly in overall numbers (14 percent), though still below usual levels.

According to Voog, the wealthier segment of the population is once again clearly turning to the Reform Party. "If this continues, it will guarantee them greater stability," said Voog.

"This is probably good news for the Reform Party's self-esteem, as they have now picked up slightly following a steady decline," Kook said.

Samost believes that the rise of the Reform Party and slight decline of Isamaa are interrelated. "Isamaa has not had only good news lately, they have also had to swallow a few bitter pills, such as financing suspicions and several other things, besides" Samost said.

Kook was surprised that the criminal investigation into financing has had so little impact on Isamaa's ratings. Samost suggested that the impact may become more apparent over a longer period of time, but it could also enable Isamaa to assume the role of victims.

At the same time, Samost said the decline could also be due to Isamaa voters who do not like the fact that the party in a coalition with the Center Party in Tallinn.

According to Voog, the fact that both parties are in opposition at the national level ensures smoother functioning of the coalition and should prevent major conflicts from arising. He added that the future Riigikogu elections provide sufficient motivation for both parties to avoid falling out.

"If one were in opposition and the other in the governing coalition, they would not be able to communicate the same things," Voog said.

"This should guarantee at least a year of stable governance for them. What will happen after the Riigikogu elections is yet to be seen," he added.

According to Voog, it is very difficult to say whether Isamaa's support has already had any impact on Peeter Raudsepp's election as mayor of Tallinn.

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