In six of Tallinn's eight electoral districts, candidates from the Center Party are projected to receive the most votes. Mihhail Kõlvart in Lasnamäe, Lauri Laats in Mustamäe and Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart in Põhja-Tallinn are forecast to achieve especially strong results. In Kesklinn, a Norstat poll commissioned by the Institute for Societal Studies predicts the highest number of votes will go to Social Democratic Party (SDE) lead candidate Jevgeni Ossinovski, while in Nõmme, Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu is favored.

In Tallinn's largest district, Lasnamäe, the survey forecasts 55 percent of the vote for Kõlvart. That would be on par with his performance four years ago, when he received 27,663 votes, nearly 58 percent of all ballots cast in the district.

Other lead candidates in Lasnamäe are expected to trail Kõlvart by a wide margin and achieve relatively similar results: Marina Kaljurand (SDE) with 8 percent, Karmen Joller (Reform) with 4 percent, Eeva Helme (EKRE) with 3 percent, Jüri Ratas (Isamaa) with 3 percent and Aivo Peterson (Koos) also with 3 percent.

Center will not win in Kesklinn and Nõmme

In the Kesklinn electoral district, the poll projects a clear lead for incumbent Social Democratic Mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski, with 17 percent of voters in the district saying they plan to support him. Four years ago, in the local elections, Ossinovski ran in Haabersti, while Riina Sikkut topped the SDE list in Kesklinn, receiving 1,665 votes, just over 6 percent of ballots cast in the district. The incumbent mayor is expected to multiply that result.

In Kesklinn, Ossinovski is followed by Riina Solman (Isamaa) and Lavly Perling (Parempoolsed), both with 8 percent, Jaak Madison with 7 percent and Andrei Kante (Center Party) with 6 percent. Marko Mihkelson and Maris Lauri (both Reform), along with Martin Helme (EKRE), are each projected to receive 5 percent.

Another district in Tallinn where the Center Party candidate is not expected to win is Nõmme. The survey forecasts the best result there for Isamaa chairman Urmas Reinsalu, who could secure 20 percent support. He is followed by current district elder Karmo Kuri (SDE) with 13 percent and longtime Nõmme candidate Urmas Paet (Reform) in third with 9 percent.

Laats and Kovalenko expected to put in strong results

According to the poll, Center Party candidates are projected to lead in the remaining districts. In Mustamäe, Lauri Laats is on course for a clear victory, with 34 percent of district voters saying they would support him. Four years ago, Laats received 8,457 votes in Mustamäe, nearly 29 percent of all ballots cast.

In Mustamäe, Tanel Kiik (SDE) and Hanno Pevkur (Reform) follow with 9 percent each, while Riho Terras (Isamaa) is close behind with 8 percent.

In Põhja-Tallinn, Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart has replaced Jana Toom as the Center Party's lead candidate and is projected to receive 32 percent of the district vote. Four years ago, Toom topped the list in Põhja-Tallinn and won 4,000 votes, or 16 percent of all ballots. The poll therefore suggests a significantly stronger result for Kovalenko-Kõlvart.

Natalie Mets (SDE) is projected second in Põhja-Tallinn with 10 percent support, followed by Sven Sester (Isamaa) and Ilmar Raag (Parempoolsed), both at 6 percent.

Norstat's survey also forecasts a strong showing for Center Party candidates in Haabersti, where Jana Toom could receive 20 percent of the vote.

A win may also be possible in Kristiine, where Vadim Belobrovtsev (Center) is projected to secure 17 percent. But Jürgen Ligi (Reform) with 11 percent and Tarmo Kruusimäe (Isamaa) with 10 percent are not far behind.

In Pirita, the most popular Center Party candidate is Kaido Saarniit, with 14 percent support. Competitors there are also close: Heidy Purga (Reform) is at 9 percent, while Barbi Pilvre and Rasmus Rask (both SDE) are each projected at 8 percent.

Klaas ja Lukas on equal support

In Tartu, the most popular candidates are incumbent Reform Party Mayor Urmas Klaas and Isamaa lead candidate Tõnis Lukas, each with 10 percent support.

Four years ago, Klaas received 6,479 votes, nearly 16 percent of all ballots cast. Lukas won 1,537 votes, or about 4 percent of Tartu's total.

For Eesti 200, which views Tartu as a crucial battleground, Kristina Kallas is projected to receive 3 percent support.

The Norstat survey commissioned by the Institute for Social Research reflects voter preferences between September 8 and September 22. The full poll results can be found here.

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