"The Reform Party's drop to 11 percent in August was apparently a short-term emotional reaction to a wave of media criticism. In September, the Reform Party has been active in the media landscape and the share of negative coverage has decreased significantly," said Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog, commenting on the latest survey results regarding party support in the context of general elections.

The Reform Party's support increase came mainly from older age groups. However, September's 14 percent is still far below the levels the party has enjoyed for years. In the last Riigikogu elections, the ruling party received 31.2 percent support.

The most popular party remains Isamaa, backed by 24 percent in September (25 percent in August). Isamaa has been the top party in Kantar Emor's surveys since November 2023, nearly two years.

In second place is the Center Party with 18 percent support (19 percent in August), closely followed by the Social Democratic Party (SDE), which rose to 17 percent (15 percent in August).

Seventeen percent is the Social Democrats' best result since September 2024, and according to Voog, has brought them back to the level they enjoyed before being pushed out of government.

Support for the Reform Party stood at 14 percent, allowing it to overtake the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), which dropped to 12 percent in September (15 percent in August). According to Voog, EKRE's support has been unstable, fluctuating between 12 and 15 percent over the past six months.

Support for the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed has held steady at 8 percent for the fifth month in a row, surpassing the electoral threshold.

Eesti 200's rating fell to 2 percent, now equal to that of the Koos party. The Greens and ERK each received 1 percent. Support for all other parties was below 1 percent.

The governing coalition's combined rating stood at 16 percent in September.

Thirty percent of respondents said they could not name a party preference in September.

When undecided voters are factored in, support levels in August were as follows: Isamaa 16 percent, Center Party 13 percent, Social Democrats 12 percent, Reform Party 10 percent, EKRE 9 percent, Parempoolsed 5 percent and Eesti 200 1 percent.

Support by ethnic group

Among ethnic Estonian respondents, Isamaa ranked first with 28 percent support. The Social Democratic Party followed in second place with 20 percent, the Reform Party was third with 16 percent and EKRE fourth with 14 percent. Both the Parempoolsed and the Center Party received 9 percent support from Estonian voters, while Eesti 200 stood at 2 percent.

Among respondents of other nationalities, the clear leader was the Center Party, supported by 65 percent (down from 71 percent in August).

In second place was Koos with 12 percent. EKRE received 6 percent and the Social Democrats 5 percent support in this voter group.

Kantar Emor surveyed 1,502 voting-age citizens across Estonia online and by phone between September 10 and 17. With this sample size, the maximum margin of error is ±2.1 percentage points.

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