Poll: Center Party may win majority in Tallinn at local elections
The Center Party may win a majority of 43 seats on Tallinn's city council at the upcoming elections, according to a new survey from Norstat and MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut.
The newly published data show the party is on course for a clear victory and would receive 46 percent of the vote in Tallinn. This would give Center 43 seats on the 79-member city council.
Center was the most popular party in Tallinn for more than two decades, at times governing the capital with a majority. Last year, four parties formed a coalition to push the party out of power.
The results suggest the Social Democratic Party would receive 16 percent, Isamaa 13 percent, and the Reform Party 12 percent of the vote.
Neither EKRE nor Parempoolsed would pass the electoral threshold, both polling at 4 percent. Eesti 200 would remain at 2 percent.
As a significant number of votes would go to parties that do not meet the threshold, this would amplify the winner's result when mandates are calculated.
Calculations by the Institute for Societal Studies suggest this would currently give the Center Party 43 seats on the council.
SDE would receive 14 mandates, and both Reform and Isamaa 11. Together, the parties would hold 36 seats, not enough to form a coalition.
The survey was conducted online from September 10 and 21 among 1,355 Tallinn residents aged 16 and older who are eligible to vote. It was carried out after the candidate lists had been finalized.
Last week's Kantar Emor poll put the results at 38 percent for Center, 15 percent for SDE, 14 percent for Reform, and 8 percent for Isamaa. Additionally, both Parempoolsed and EKRE passed the 5 percent threshold.
Isamaa most popular in Tartu
In Tartu, 540 respondents were surveyed, and Isamaa received the highest level of support, with 27 percent. The Reform Party, which has long governed Tartu, was second with 22 percent.
They were followed by SDE (18 percent), EKRE (11 percent), Parempoolsed (7 percent), and the Center (6 percent).
Converted into mandates, this would mean that in the 49-member Tartu city council, Isamaa would receive 15 seats, Reform 12, SDE 10, EKRE six, Parempoolsed three, and the Center Party also three.
The local government council election week runs from October 13–19.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Helen Wright
