Support for the Center Party in Tallinn reached 43.5 percent in a Norstat poll conducted from September 29 to October 13, up from 42.4 percent the previous week.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE) rose to second place with 14.8 percent support, edging up from 14.4 percent and third place the week prior.

Isamaa dropped to third with 13.3 percent, down from 14.8 percent.

The Reform Party held steady with 11 percent support (down slightly from 11.2 percent) and the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) registered 6.9 percent (down from 7 percent).

While Parempoolsed managed a small increase from 3.5 to 3.9 percent, their support still falls below the electoral threshold of 5 percent in this survey.

Support for various electoral alliances — three of which are running in Tallinn — totaled 2.3 percent. Eesti 200 polled at 2.1 percent, the Koos party at 1.4 percent, the Greens at 0.7 percent and the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK) at 0.2 percent.

In all, parties below the electoral threshold drew a combined 10.6 percent of support — up significantly from just 3.1 percent in the previous local elections in 2021. Since votes for parties that don't cross the threshold are redistributed, the largest party, Center, is expected to benefit most.

The Institute for Societal Studies also projected council mandates based on the polling results. According to its model, the Center Party would secure 39 seats in the 79-member city council, up one from the previous week's estimate. SDE would win 13 seats (up one), Isamaa 12 (down one), Reform nine (down one) and EKRE would remain steady at six seats.

The Institute plans to publish its next election forecast on Saturday.

Last week, the Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK) released its own forecast. According to SALK, Center would win 35 mandates in Tallinn, Isamaa 13, SDE 12, Reform nine, EKRE five and Parempoolsed five. The biggest differences from the ÜI projection are Center's lower seat count (-4) and Parempoolsed passing the threshold and entering the council.

Center leads in seven of eight city districts

According to the Institute for Societal Studies/Norstat survey, the Center Party is poised to win in seven out of eight electoral districts in Tallinn. Its strongest leads are in Lasnamäe, Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Mustamäe. Isamaa leads in Nõmme, and in Kesklinn, Center only holds a narrow lead over SDE.

A Center Party candidate is also the most popular individual contender in six city districts. Support for Mihhail Kõlvart in Lasnamäe stands at 52 percent, Lauri Laats leads in Mustamäe with 35 percent, Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart has 25 percent in Põhja-Tallinn and Jana Toom is ahead in Haabersti with 22 percent.

Center candidates are not the frontrunners in Nõmme or Kesklinn. In Nõmme, Isamaa chair Urmas Reinsalu leads with 18 percent, while in Kesklinn, current Mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski (SDE) leads with 14 percent.

Isamaa surrenders more of its lead in Tartu, Eesti 200 to just make the threshold

Last week, ERR reported that Isamaa's lead in Tartu had narrowed based on Institute for Societal Studies (ÜI) polling. The latest survey confirms this trend.

Support for Isamaa in Tartu now stands at 25 percent, which would translate to 14 seats on the 49-member city council. The Reform Party follows with 22 percent support, worth 12 seats.

For comparison, Isamaa polled at 22 percent a week ago and 30 percent two weeks ago. Reform's support has risen gradually — from 18 percent two weeks ago to 19 percent last week and now 22 percent.

The Social Democrats (SDE) are in third place in Tartu with 17 percent, giving them nine seats. Both the Center Party and EKRE would receive six seats each.

Eesti 200 has seen a significant uptick, reaching the 5-percent electoral threshold and earning two seats. Parempoolsed, with 3 percent support, would fall short of representation in Tartu.

In last week's Tartu forecast by the Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK), Isamaa received 14 mandates, Reform 10, SDE nine, EKRE seven, Center six and Parempoolsed three. Eesti 200 was right at the threshold.

Among individual candidates in Tartu, the most popular is incumbent mayor Urmas Klaas (Reform) with 11 percent support. Isamaa's mayoral candidate Tõnis Lukas has 8 percent. Malle Pärn (EKRE) and Elo Kiivet (SDE) both received 5 percent.

Liina Kersna (Reform) and Kristina Kallas (Eesti 200) each drew 4 percent support. Vahur Kraft, the mayoral candidate for Parempoolsed, received 2 percent.

In Pärnu, the ÜI forecast shows Isamaa in the lead with 26 percent support, which would yield 11 seats in the 49-member city council. Electoral alliances (three are running in Pärnu) are supported by 23 percent (10 seats), EKRE by 18 percent (seven seats), the Reform Party by 15 percent (six seats) and the Center Party by 14 percent (five seats).

Narva presents a similarly competitive picture. There, three electoral alliances collectively drew 47 percent support, the Center Party 42 percent and the Koos party 5 percent. This would result in 16 seats for the alliances, 14 for Center and one for Koos in the 31-seat council.

However, Narva's alliances differ sharply in character. The poll groups support for three distinct lists: the Katri Raik List, Mihhail Stalnuhhin's People's List and Plan B – Narva City Pulse.

COMMENTARY:

Remi Sebastian Kits

Data Analyst, Institute for Societal Studies

"We'll release two municipal election ratings during election week — one on Wednesday and another on Saturday. Both will be larger than usual: today's sample includes about 10,000 respondents and Saturday's will approach 12,000. Typically, our samples are around 7,000.

Center's low point in Tallinn appears to be over, with support now at 43.5 percent. This gives the party a 20 percent probability of winning an outright majority.

That scenario depends, however, on both EKRE and Parempoolsed failing to enter the city council. Given recent calls to support Parempoolsed strategically, it's possible that both parties will be over the threshold in Saturday's poll and Sunday's results. That would significantly reduce Center's chances of governing alone."

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!