The 2027 state budget, which has reached its second reading in parliament, will also shape the educational opportunities available to young people who are currently completing secondary education. Will universities have enough places for a larger generation of school graduates, and can the quality of education be maintained while teaching more students?

Parliament has already expressed its position. In its statement "In Support of Higher Education," lawmakers called on the government to ensure that, beginning with admissions in 2027, at least 1,000 additional tuition-free study places are provided annually over several years in fields important to Estonia's development leap. That statement must now be reflected in the state budget.

While about 10,100 young people completed secondary education in 2024, forecasts by the Ministry of Education and Research indicate that the number of graduates will reach 12,500 by 2028. This gives Estonia an opportunity to increase the number of people with higher education, but it requires that opportunities to continue studies grow alongside the number of graduates.

Educating the current large generation of young people carries particular importance. If this opportunity is missed, it will become much more difficult to increase the number of highly educated people later because of declining birth rates. Missing out on higher education can limit a young person's opportunities and leave part of their potential unused for the benefit of society.

Education and Research Minister Kristina Kallas has also warned that insufficient study opportunities could increase the number of young people entering the labor market without professional qualifications and slow the competitiveness of the Estonian economy.

University of Tartu Rector Toomas Asser has emphasized that Estonia's move toward a more knowledge-intensive economy depends on how many people possess the necessary expertise. Training the next generation of top specialists requires a strong higher education pathway that begins with sufficient admissions to bachelor's programs.

I have written previously that the scale of higher education and choices of study fields cannot be determined solely by current labor market needs. It is already difficult to predict workforce needs five or 10 years into the future, and the rapid development of artificial intelligence is increasing uncertainty even further, as developments in recent months and weeks have demonstrated.

In such circumstances, the strength of academic university education lies in broad-based knowledge, critical thinking, independent learning skills, and the ability to create new solutions. Highly educated people also create new jobs and help society adapt to change.

New study places require real additional funding

During spring negotiations over administrative agreements, both the ministry and the universities estimated that creating additional study places would require a total of €146 million over the next four years. Of that amount, €19.7 million is needed in 2027, including €13.3 million for first-cycle higher education places.

The increase in higher education funding planned in the draft state budget amounts to only €3.67 million. Compared with the funding needed for first-cycle study places alone, that is nearly €10 million less. The shortfall is intended to be covered by redistributing the existing operating support of universities and professional higher education institutions. As a result, creating new study places would require reducing funding for existing education.

For young people, this creates a real risk that new study places will be established at the expense of current students' learning conditions. If more students must be taught with the same amount of money, the result may be larger study groups, fewer elective courses, and fewer opportunities for individual guidance and meaningful feedback from lecturers. Besides the number of places, it is important to ask what kind of education students enrolled in those places will actually receive.

This is not the first time agreements on higher education funding and actual budget decisions have diverged. In 2023, universities and parliamentary parties agreed that years of funding shortfalls should be corrected over four years and that a sustainable funding model should be developed.

Since then, the planned increase in operating support has repeatedly been reduced. According to the Council of Rectors, operating support for higher education in the 2027 budget falls nearly €50 million short of the level previously agreed upon.

At the same time, universities have increased admissions, improved on-time graduation rates, and developed new forms of study. The administrative agreements signed this spring also included a commitment to educate more young people.

Universities must, of course, organize their activities efficiently and seek ways to teach better with existing resources. Efficiency should also be measured by whether students can successfully complete their studies and graduate. Expanding admissions will not achieve its goal if lecturers have less time to support students and the risk of dropping out increases.

For this reason, universities need certainty that funding will be available for the entire duration of a student's studies if admissions are to be increased. A decision on admissions for one year creates a commitment lasting several years to the young people who enroll.

Parliament can still change the situation

On October 14 of this year, parliament adopted the statement "In Support of Higher Education" with 65 votes in favor. In addition to creating extra tuition-free study places, the statement calls for continued increases in funding for Estonian-language higher education, competitive pay for academic staff, and improvements in educational quality. Parliament has therefore expressed a clear position that educating more young people and ensuring the quality of higher education must go hand in hand.

Parliament now has an opportunity during the budget process to translate that position into funding decisions. The Council of Rectors' request is that an additional €19.7 million be added to existing higher education funding in 2027 to create new study places. Redistributing existing operating support will not meet that need.

This amount will not solve all the funding problems in higher education, but it would make it possible to increase admissions without reducing funding for existing education. For today's school students, it would provide more opportunities to continue their studies and confidence that a study place also means a high-quality education.

Parliament has supported the creation of additional study places. The 2027 state budget should therefore include real additional funding to create them.

We currently have an opportunity to provide higher education to a larger generation of young people than before. Such an opportunity will not come again for decades. Let us make use of it.

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