Recent meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have sent generally positive signals to Ukraine, Luik said.

"Both in Ankara and now in Washington, Trump has emphasized U.S. support and understanding of what the Ukrainians are doing. The most interesting moment for me was in Ankara where Trump said that yes, Ukraine's bombing of Russia could be seen as an escalation, but it is an escalation that could lead to peace. In fact, Trump was somewhat out of step with several members of his administration who have warned about the risks of escalation. The U.S. State Department in particular has been concerned about that, but Trump gave it the green light. I think that's something the Kremlin certainly did not like," Luik said.

The shift in Trump's position reflects his belief that the two sides in the war have reached a balance of strength, which could pave the way for a peace process, Luik said.

"One can debate the actual military or psychological impact of these deep strikes. Perhaps we're overestimating them somewhat. But from Trump's perspective, the important thing is that the Ukrainians now have some cards to play and that likely creates an opportunity to try to revive some form of peace process. It appears things are moving in that direction," Luik said.

Luik said he hopes U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will visit Ukraine in the near future.

"To underscore the neutrality of the negotiators, such a visit would in itself be symbolically very important. On the other hand, I see absolutely no interest on Russia's part in any kind of negotiations other than negotiations over Ukraine's surrender. But if we're talking about serious, substantive negotiations, President Putin certainly does not want them," Luik said.

"I believe that, from Putin's perspective, he is far from having exhausted his military options. He is prepared to go much, much further and pursue several more rounds of escalation before there is even the slightest chance that any negotiations will take place," he added.

Graham's bill of great political significance

Although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned about the risk of escalation in his public remarks, Luik said the Trump administration has nevertheless been much bolder and more resolute than the Biden administration.

"For the previous administration, the risks of escalation essentially paralyzed its support for Ukrainian strikes against Russia. As you may recall, that was an absolute red line for Biden," he said.

Luik also highlighted the importance of a new Russia sanctions bill, introduced by former Sen. Lindsey Graham and now backed in the U.S. Senate.

"First, it is politically and symbolically significant. Second, it is important because it would enable so-called secondary sanctions. The issue is not so much imposing additional sanctions on Russia itself, but sanctioning countries that continue to trade with Russia and, for example, buy discounted Russian oil. In principle, such legislation would make it possible to sanction China and India. At the same time, the bill is not yet on such firm footing that it is certain to pass Congress because there are many different groups that are skeptical of it for reasons unrelated to Ukraine," Luik said.

"But the political weight of this legislation is very significant and given that it bears the name of a great senator who is no longer with us, I believe it will ultimately be adopted. Exactly what form it will take and what its final provisions will be is still too early to say," he added.

In Luik's view, Western countries have also remained remarkably united in their efforts to pressure Russia.

"I've been somewhat surprised by how strong that unity has remained. Of course, there are differences in the details. Some want more active negotiations with Russia, others seek to mediate and so on. But there is a shared understanding that we must support the victim," Luik said.

"At the same time, Ukraine has now become so much stronger. I think that is a very important factor. On the one hand, there is a desire to help, but on the other, when countries see that Ukraine has something to offer them, self-interest also comes into play. Supporting Ukraine is no longer charity; it is now firmly rooted in national interests," he added.

Confusion over missile production right

A major issue in U.S.-Ukraine relations is whether Washington will authorize Ukraine to produce U.S.-made air defense missiles. Conflicting signals have emerged and it remains unclear whether the U.S. will grant Ukraine permission to manufacture Patriot missiles or when such a decision might be made.

"To be honest, I never believed from the outset that this would amount to much in practice anytime soon. Major U.S. defense companies are extremely cautious. We're talking about highly sophisticated technology — the PAC-3 missiles capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles — and that technology is unique. The idea of transferring it to Ukraine raises a whole range of intellectual property concerns. In fact, these companies have been reluctant to share the technology even with more stable Western countries. Germany, for example, has long sought permission to produce PAC-3 missiles, but it still does not have that opportunity," Luik said.

"Trump himself said before the Ankara summit that he had not spoken with the companies, and I believe that is ultimately what doomed the project," he added.

According to Luik, even if Ukraine were granted permission to manufacture the missiles now, it would not produce any practical benefits for another two or three years.

"Manufacturing these missiles is extremely complex and highly specialized. It requires a vast number of components, radars and engines that all have to be produced separately. It is not a quick solution to Ukraine's air defense needs. Additional missiles will still have to come from the existing stockpiles of allied countries," Luik said.

For now, air defense systems and missiles supplied from allied stockpiles remain the only rapid way for Ukraine to defend itself against Russian air attacks, he added.

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