"Right now it's a military machine where they assume war could start tomorrow. I wouldn't say that this atmosphere existed before the war in Ukraine," said Luik in an interview. "Naturally, this atmosphere shapes the alliance's logic and all the practical issues we dealt with in developing the armed forces."

Ukraine is no longer just a recipient of aid but a country whose military experience — especially with drones — is critically valuable to NATO. Ukraine's membership is increasingly seen as a solution to NATO's shortcomings in ground forces and technology.

Ukraine is the battleground where, unfortunately through weapons, Europe's security future is being decided, similar to the role of West Berlin or the Fulda Gap during the Cold War (Fulda is an area in Germany, that was considered a likely direction for a Soviet attack — ed.). There was no war there, but they were similarly important, Luik noted.

Ukraine's frontline experience reshapes alliance thinking

"Ukraine itself has risen to the occasion in many areas, especially in drones, and is helping NATO rather than us helping them. So this is a completely different level," Luik said. "Until now, the thinking was that Ukraine is large but very weak, and its membership in NATO would mean an obligation for us to defend them. All thinking was based on that. Now the principle is completely different: if Ukraine were a member, many of NATO's shortcomings — especially in ground forces and even drones — would be fundamentally solved."

NATO structures are now directly involved in assisting Ukraine: a special headquarters (NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, NSATU) has been created to coordinate military aid, and aid moves through airfields that are NATO facilities. There is technological cooperation, such as forming consortia to find cheaper alternatives to Patriot air defense systems.

NATO's goal is to keep Russia in uncertainty and fear, ensuring a situation where any attack would immediately cause Russia to lose control over events. Luik said NATO must have a deterrent effect during peacetime. "This deterrence is happening all the time. We don't see it every day because it's meant to work primarily in President Putin's mind. The fear and uncertainty that attacking NATO member states isn't worth it. But of course NATO must be ready for real combat. If it's forced upon us, there must be no doubt that the means and the will to act exist."

It is crucial that Russians sense what NATO calls escalation dominance. "What does that mean? If the Russians do anything, their first step triggers a process where they immediately lose control over what happens," Luik said. "All preparations are extremely important. Large exercises, weapons purchases, even the sharp rise in defense spending — all of this strengthens NATO's deterrence."

Germany's expanding commitments in the Baltic region

Estonia has achieved strategically important shifts, especially in moving from air policing to air defense and securing allied presence.

Germany has taken on major defense commitments in the Baltic states, first in Lithuania and now also in Estonia and Latvia. The Germans raised their defense spending above two percent two years ago. In all three NATO operational headquarters that command combat operations in specific regions, leadership positions will go to Europeans, Luik noted.

"The Americans are giving up two of them, both previously under U.S. generals or admirals. So in that sense, Europeans are taking greater responsibility. If we look at the Baltic states, we clearly see the Estonian division, the German‑Dutch corps. We finally have the British, the French are in Estonia, the Germans are in Lithuania. Many major and important elements in NATO already belong to Europeans. But of course the Americans currently provide the framework — command systems, satellites, intelligence. This is delicate work that is hard to quickly take over or build up on your own."

NATO replaces AWACS with Swedish aircraft

Luik noted that the fact NATO has replaced American AWACS reconnaissance aircraft — historically NATO's reconnaissance planes — with Swedish aircraft is a historic decision. "Europeans can provide similar quality because those Swedish planes wouldn't be purchased if they didn't meet the same requirements AWACS meets."

Despite political rhetoric, U.S. commitment to NATO has remained, but Europe must adapt to a new reality. President Trump's criticism of European defense spending is aimed at domestic audiences and pressuring allies.

Luik said the NATO summit in Ankara was successful. "It must be admitted that initial expectations were low because there were fears of a major crisis or blow‑up. That absolutely didn't happen. Quite the opposite. President Trump said at the press conference afterward that it was a very pleasant meeting and European leaders are very likable people. So the atmosphere was completely different."

"There was a lot of love in that room, a lot of unity," said president Trump after the leaders' closed door dialogue.

NATO's system is full of American generals who are exceptionally open, pro‑European and friendly toward allies. "It's very easy to work with them. And I must honestly say there is no problem talking to Americans or explaining our positions," Luik said.

Estonia secures key air defense decisions

For Estonia, NATO's developments have been successful, ensuring practical decisions needed for national defense: the shift from air policing to air defense has taken place; the status of Ämari Air Base and allied aircraft presence is now on solid footing; and the supreme commander's authority in air defense has a clear framework.

NATO operates on consensus, meaning there are no public votes — decisions are made through silent agreement after thorough negotiations. Secretary General Mark Rutte's task is to keep the alliance united, balancing different interests. His position often requires "coaxing" and diplomatic skill, especially in relations with the United States, while representing all member states, including the U.S. president.

"Americans often behave this way, that Rutte is some kind of European representative. In reality, that is not the case. He also represents the U.S. government. He also represents President Trump," Luik noted.

Luik's successor as Estonia's ambassador to NATO, Kristjan Prikk, brings experience from Washington and the Defense Ministry, which is critically important at a time when NATO is increasingly focused on defense and deterrence.

Jüri Luik emphasized that although Estonia's main goal — NATO membership — was achieved in 2004, the real work of ensuring the alliance functions is a continuous process involving thousands of details and political choices, all centered on guaranteeing Estonia's security.

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