We have discussed China several times, but the country is vast, developments are interesting, and its past is long. As China scholars like to emphasize, this nation has 5,000 years of history and development behind it. More critical historians point out that the data for the first two millennia are too sparse to draw firm conclusions. And even during the remaining millennia, it was by no means a single unified people or state — there were internal wars, periods of foreign rule, and more.

Still, no one denies that the history and culture of the Chinese people are long and rich. It is also widely agreed that thinking about the past has a definite place and influence in present-day China.

Geopolitically, we are currently in a period when the United States' previous global influence — especially its so-called soft power — is in decline. At the same time, China is on the rise in many respects. Movement along this path has shifted from advantages driven primarily by economic development toward soft power, particularly in countries of the Global South.

In the West, including Europe, China is viewed with suspicion, though it is also seen as a counterweight to what is perceived as the United States' reckless policies. This is somewhat paradoxical, but economic relations with China may now appear to offer a more stable future than those with the U.S., given Washington's attitude toward its longstanding allies. In other words, China may currently be able to take advantage of the opportunities created by the United States' turbulent behavior on the international stage.

According to some observers, China is trying to enhance its image by using so-called moral realism, drawing on the ideas of the classical thinker Xunzi. Xunzi was among the first to provide perhaps the most thorough account of the ancient concept of Tianxia — "all under heaven." His work emerged during the Warring States period (475–221 BCE). We have referred to Tianxia before in these background pieces. It summarized the imperial Chinese worldview, in which the known world is centered on a single Son of Heaven.

Over the centuries, this center expanded from the royal core — the area directly governed by a single ruler and surrounding his palace — to the Chinese heartland. The surrounding regions were seen as fortifications protecting the center. Xunzi described in detail the requirements for building a unified empire under the rule of a single Son of Heaven. Like other thinkers of the Confucian tradition, Xunzi considered the ruler's highest duty to be the welfare of his subjects.

According to Xunzi, "Heaven did not create people for the benefit of the ruler; it created rulers for the benefit of the people." Yet Xunzi was also a realist. He understood that the task of unifying an empire was easier for a true ruler if his justice was backed by military force, though he was also convinced that relying solely on pressure and domination would not succeed in subjugating all under heaven. In other words, it is a combination of moral and military power — and this can likely also be observed in China's current leadership.

It may seem strange to discuss such things in the context of today's communist regime, but in China, power has almost always been shaped by historically developed patterns of thought that have been passed down through the centuries. From a realist perspective, in a world order based on nation-states, a certain hierarchy appears inevitable.

Modern Chinese authorities have not openly expressed a desire to rule the world. Rather, they speak of a global community with a shared future, in which China positions itself as a reliable and just partner — especially in contrast to recent U.S. behavior.

According to one Chinese thinker, a world leading to lasting peace can emerge only if China rises as a superpower grounded in humane authority.

So far, China's rise has largely been based on economic growth, but that growth is slowing. As prosperity has increased, China has also lost some of its advantages as a source of cheap labor. Much low-cost manufacturing has moved to other countries, and China is also facing demographic challenges — namely, a shrinking workforce due to low birth rates. As a result, Beijing has shifted toward achieving technological leadership. Technology, especially in the digital sphere, is in fact one manifestation of China's soft power.

China's so-called Digital Silk Road project is one of the main forms of that manifestation. It should be noted, however, that this digital road also appears to involve, among other things, the development of digital surveillance systems, data governance, and the shaping of artificial intelligence standards in a China-centric way.

Drawing on the legacy of past thinkers, China is developing new global norms based on harmony, stability, and collective development — at least in rhetoric. This model is presented as a response to Western norms, which are based on individualism, freedom of expression, and unrestricted competition.

Looking ahead, a new world order in the Chinese style seems to be based on a different understanding of the modern era than that of the West. The Chinese model draws on traditional definitions of military-political power and seeks to create an alternative world order through artificial intelligence, quantum computing, genetic engineering, and space technologies.

If we set aside Beijing's claims that it does not seek to become a hegemon, the impression remains that China's goal is to achieve a leading role through control of international norms and algorithms. This has been described as a paradigmatic shift that fundamentally alters existing definitions of power.

One distinctive feature of China is that it is never entirely clear what its leadership is planning. Militarily, China so far appears to be focused only on asserting control over its immediate surroundings, but this may be due to a lack of capabilities to project power further afield. Judging by current military development plans, China's ambitions could be significantly greater in less than a decade. While the United States is dismantling the existing world order, China is preparing to take on a larger role in a new one.

All of this could be influenced by China's internal development. President Xi Jinping's efforts to purge potential rivals and consolidate his personal power may at some point lead to unexpected outcomes. A sole leader might come to believe that he truly is the only Son of Heaven under the sky.

Further reading

• Xunzi and the Legalist Legacy: The Untold Story of China's Philosophical Architect – Ancient War History
• China's Identity through a Historical Lens
• Unraveling China's Grand Strategy: Its Aim is to Erode U.S. Global Hegemony, Not Seek World Domination - The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy - l'Institut pour la paix et la diplomatie
• China's Global Hegemony Strategy
• China's ancient statecraft and the future of global order: Does China pursue hegemony or harmony?

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