In 2009, French geopolitician Dominique Moïsi published "The Geopolitics of Emotion", which also appeared in Estonian. Two years ago, Moïsi released its sequel, "The Triumph of Emotions: Geopolitics in an Age of Resentment, Anger, and Fear" (Dominique Moïsi, 2025). That is the basis for this discussion.

It must be noted right away that events are currently unfolding so rapidly that any analysis may become outdated within months, sometimes even days. The edition I used from last year already included a new foreword to update the topic, and a recently published French reprint includes yet another foreword with this year's date.

Above all, this is due to developments following Donald Trump's return to power, though not only that. In any case, Moïsi deemed it necessary this year to publish yet another book on the subject, titled "The Triangle of World Passions: Understanding the Coming Chaos". In it, he replaces "emotions" with "passions," suggesting that the situation has grown even more intense.

He describes a new world characterized by the convergence of three dates: the start of the major war against Ukraine in February 2022, the beginning of the Gaza war in 2023, and the U.S. presidential election of 2024. In a later interview, he added the outbreak of war against Iran this year as well.

This rapid evolution of the geopolitical landscape is emblematic of our time. Before our eyes, one historical cycle is ending and another is beginning. Europe, in this fast-moving reality, finds itself caught between two fires: a strategic threat from Russia on one side and an ideological threat from America on the other — not to mention China's economic challenge.

In such circumstances, Moïsi argues that Europe should place unity at the top of its agenda. The cost of current developments will be paid either in money now or in blood later. In his view, the rational world has come to an end, and Europe may be slipping into a gray zone of history, becoming simultaneously a victim of both Trumpism and Putinism — a rather bleak outlook.

Returning to "The Triumph of Emotions", Moïsi argues that history's verdict is clear: fear has triumphed over hope. Negative emotions have multiplied and diversified. To humiliation and fear must now be added emotions such as anger and resentment — if not outright rage and hatred. A tripolar world is emerging: one "pole," the global south, is characterized by hope and resentment; the global east by humiliation and anger; and the global west by fear and adaptability.

Raw emotions such as anger and even hatred have prevailed in both international and domestic politics. This is visible not only in the extreme rhetoric of leaders but also, currently, in the war in Ukraine. The divide between Western and non-Western societies is widening.

The bipolar order of the Cold War era up to 1989 can, in hindsight, be seen as artificially simple — two blocs led by two superpowers. The post–Cold War unipolar moment under U.S. leadership was so short-lived that it offers few lessons.

Today, some believe a bipolar order is returning, with China taking on the role once played by the Soviet Union. The difference, however, is that China is a true global power, something Moscow never was. The Soviet Union was a one-dimensional power, primarily an object of fear. China, by contrast, is needed by the world, just as China needs the world.

In the new tripolar world, the West has likely lost its primary role. It must accept the harsh reality that it is now only one center of power and influence and has lost its status as a model for others. In culture, for example, the soft power of South Korea and India is growing; in fashion, Africa has entered the scene; and in sports, Saudi Arabia, thanks to its vast financial resources, is rising.

As for globalization, it should not be confused with interdependence. Economically, the retreat from globalization began years ago, yet in both economics and geopolitics the world has become more interdependent.

Looking at the war in Ukraine, one cannot ignore its possible consequences for the future of the South China Sea. There is also the question of whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine might encourage China to bring Taiwan under its control. Regardless of how it ends, this war will remain a global rule-shaper — not only geopolitically, but potentially also economically, politically, and even culturally.

For the West, the war in Ukraine has overshadowed many other conflicts. Although the war involving Iran and developments in the Middle East are also highly significant. For the global south, the war in Ukraine is largely seen as a conflict between white Europeans. Poorer countries are not particularly moved by the framing of the war as "good versus evil." However, when grain prices rise as a result of the war, they feel they are once again victims of power games played by white nations.

In the non-Western world, dominant emotions differ sharply from those in the West. There is also an element of indifference mixed with a certain hidden schadenfreude. Yet the global south is an emerging force, with a potential leader in India.

Russia's stance toward the West is, in many ways, appealing to parts of the global south, as many of these countries harbor grievances against the West. At the same time, the war has driven some global south countries away from Moscow. Ultimately, the war in Ukraine is also a conflict of emotions: imperial emotions on the Russian side and national emotions on the Ukrainian side.

The term "global east" is rarely used; Moïsi uses it to refer to a group of countries driven by a revisionist view of the world and willing to use force both to seize what they see as their rightful territory and to suppress dissent domestically. These countries include Russia, North Korea, and Iran. China can belong to either the south or the east. These states also tend to be primary sources of anger in their respective regions: Russia for Europe, Iran for the Middle East, and North Korea — and also China — for Asia.

One key issue of our time is the feeling of losing control in three areas: climate change, migration, and artificial intelligence. These three challenges are real and pose risks even in a tripolar world — but that is a separate topic.

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