So far, drones that have strayed into Estonia have not caused major damage, but it cannot be ruled out that one could end up over Estonian ports. If they do, the damage could be extensive, said Viktor Palmet, a maritime expert at the Estonian Logistics and Ports Association.

"The damage would, of course, be significant if an Estonian fuel terminal or even a general cargo port were hit. We have discussed this issue in ports and have approached the Transport Administration and the Climate Ministry," Palmet said.

Port representatives have asked the EDF to share information about threats, he added.

"At the moment, we have also made a proposal to the Transport Administration to raise this issue, so that security would be ensured in such a way that the relevant individuals would receive information about drone movements not through general information channels, but directly," Palmet added.

Every port has a security plan and the state carries out security risk analysis every five years.

"We know what the security risks are, but those risks change. Since cargo is loaded and unloaded at ports, we must have very specific measures for what to do if, for example, a drone flies in our direction and there is a risk it could enter the port. Does this mean we need to implement some kind of mitigating measures, for instance, stopping loading operations, perhaps even evacuation requirements? We need to know and work through these things now," Palmet said.

He said the whole issue is still new for them and little has been done so far.

Possible benefits?

Ukraine has been attacked Russia's Baltic Sea port for several weeks. Could Estonia stand to benefit if cargo flows are redirected?

Transit and economic expert Raivo Vare said that this could happen to some extent, but there is no reason to expect massive cargo volumes.

"A dozen years ago, when I dealt with this issue in depth, I put forward the thesis that we had shifted from being Russia's main port to being an auxiliary port, and that role will not disappear even if sanctions are lifted. There will be some flows, but it is not what is often imagined – that golden transit times will return, with tens of millions of tons moving," he explained.

The expert said some limited cargo flows may come to Estonia if there are problems at Russian ports, but not everything can be handled there for various reasons.

Igor Gretskiy, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security, said regardless of how Russia's war ends, sanctions will likely remain.

Under both U.S. and European laws, these are tied to territorial integrity, and there is no indication that Russia is prepared to give up the occupied territories in Ukraine, he said.

"This means that future deliveries to Russian ports will involve sanctions risks. All of this is reflected in shipment insurance. Insurance premiums for ships and traders dealing with Russian ports will increase. Therefore, everything depends on how large a share insurance makes up in the average delivery price per barrel," the researcher said.

"It seems to me that up to a certain point, Baltic ports may gain new opportunities if safer ports are sought, ones that are nearby but without sanctions or the risk of military incidents," Gretskiy added.

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