Tallink Grupp discontinued freight operations on the Paldiski-Kapellskär route with the Superfast IX vessel starting in May, citing operational optimization, as the ship had greater passenger capacity than the route required.

Since then, only DFDS has operated the Paldiski-Kapellskär route, with sailings six times a week. For freight carriers, this is bad news, as the Scandinavian countries are among Estonia's main export partners and the number of trucks heading to Sweden often exceeds the ferry's capacity. As a result, dozens of trucks are left behind.

Tiit Parik, chairman of the council of the Estonian International Road Carriers Association (ERAA) and CEO of transport company Haanpaa OÜ, told ERR the concern is significant.

"The problem is that many goods today are time-sensitive — shipments cannot wait one, two or three days for transport. Products destined for manufacturing processes in particular must arrive not only on the correct date but at the exact time," Parik explained, adding that delivery times are specified even more precisely for higher-value goods.

The transport company executive added that he could not say how many trucks on average are unable to board the ferry, but described the situation as one where, once the ship is fully booked, a waiting list is created for those hoping a reserved vehicle does not show up.

"This is a problem for carriers, but from my perspective it is an even bigger problem for Estonian industry and exports — for those sending goods to Scandinavia," Parik said, adding that companies shipping products to the Norwegian and Danish markets also use the Estonia-Sweden ferry connection.

Peeter Ojasaar, head of DFDS's Estonian branch, confirmed that since Superfast IX stopped operating on the Paldiski-Kapellskär route, they have indeed seen greater pressure on certain departures.

"At the same time, DFDS has not added an additional vessel to the route and the ship's physical capacity has not changed. We continue to operate the route with the Sirena Seaways, which has capacity for approximately 2,200 lane meters of various types of rolling cargo and up to 600 passengers," Ojasaar said.

According to him, it is important to understand that the issue is not only the total weekly capacity, but above all how demand is distributed throughout the week.

"Freight traffic between Estonia and Sweden follows a fairly fixed logistical rhythm. Export traffic from Estonia usually sees the highest pressure on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Traffic from Sweden to Estonia is busiest on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Finding available space on those departures can indeed be very difficult," Ojasaar noted.

At the same time, the branch manager stressed this does not mean all departures are full. On certain days, demand is heavily concentrated on the same departures, while other sailings have considerably more space available.

The representative of international road carriers recalled that similar situations — where there are often more trucks than available ferry spots — have occurred in the past as well, for example two years ago, when only one ship also operated on the Paldiski-Kapellskär route. Parik noted that economic cycles naturally affect freight volumes, but said it appears one ship is not enough for the route.

To ensure goods still reach their destinations, some carriers have turned to transporting freight via Finland as an alternative. Tallink operates between Tallinn and Stockholm every other day, so carriers seeking a daily connection instead travel from Estonia to Finland and onward to Sweden. Some Estonian carriers also reach Sweden via Latvia and Lithuania. However, all of these alternatives are considerably more expensive.

"We are now entering the vacation season and tourists will also begin traveling, so ferry space will become increasingly scarce," Parik said.

In his view, the solution must come from the ferry operators, with attention focused primarily on Tallink, although Parik acknowledged it is understandable for companies to discontinue economically unprofitable routes.

"Transport companies and representative organizations can hold discussions on how to prevent a situation like this from recurring in the future. Considering how important the Scandinavian market is for our country, this is primarily a concern for Estonian manufacturers and exporters," Parik said.

Tallink said in March that it was not abandoning the Paldiski-Kapellskär route, but was instead searching for a replacement vessel of suitable size and configuration. So far, however, no replacement has been found and the search continues.

"We have actively helped Tallink freight customers ourselves by offering alternative transport solutions via Helsinki," the company's communications director, Meelis Kompus, said. "Naturally, we cannot comment on the capabilities of other market participants or the exact situation at the port."

Adding a temporary vessel would be costly

In Peeter Ojasaar's view, the solution is not to immediately bring another vessel onto the market, but rather to use existing capacity more intelligently.

"We have discussed practical solutions with customers, freight forwarders and carriers, such as using alternative departures, planning shipments earlier and, where possible, making greater use of unaccompanied trailers. On less heavily booked departures, customers may not only have a better chance of securing space on the ship, but often also benefit from a lower price," the head of DFDS's Estonian branch said.

According to Ojasaar, the company has also considered adding another vessel or using a different type of ship. In practice, however, bringing an additional vessel onto the route in the short term is operationally difficult and very expensive.

"Shipping does not work in a way where you simply take a vessel from somewhere and place it on a new route tomorrow. A ship is not a standard truck that can quickly be moved from one route to another. The vessel must be compatible with specific ports, shore ramps, water depths, safety requirements, passenger and cargo handling systems and the entire operational setup," Ojasaar explained.

Ojasaar noted that although DFDS is a large European shipping and logistics group, this does not mean it has a suitable spare vessel sitting somewhere that could be brought to Estonia for two months without complications.

"Modern shipping is also significantly more expensive than it was just a few years ago. Fuel prices, labor costs, port and waterway fees and maintenance costs have all increased," Ojasaar said. "In addition, the sector is heavily affected by decarbonization pressure. Shipping has been included in the European Union's emissions trading system and the associated cost burden is gradually increasing."

The shipping company representative acknowledged that from the perspective of environmental goals, this is an understandable direction, but in practical terms it means every nautical mile and every additional departure must be economically justified.

"An additional vessel must at least cover its own costs. Bringing a ship onto the route just in case is not realistic," Ojasaar said.

Speaking about freight rates, Ojasaar noted that the company has not raised general prices due to its competitor leaving the route. However, surcharges such as the fuel adjustment factor (BAF) and emissions trading system surcharge (ETS) change monthly. While the ETS surcharge has remained relatively stable since January and has even fallen slightly, the BAF surcharge has risen from €2.75 per lane meter in January to €9.38 currently — an increase of nearly 241 percent.

Ojasaar emphasized that the shipping company understands the concerns of carriers and exporters and is working to ensure the existing service is used as efficiently as possible, but a shipping operator alone cannot solve the entire problem and a sustainable solution requires flexibility throughout the logistics chain.

Ojasaar said the issue is also one of Estonia's crisis resilience, as maintaining a functioning regular maritime connection with Sweden is important for the supply security of the entire region.

"If supply chains become more rigid, maritime logistics also becomes more expensive. But if we can distribute and plan some of the volumes more effectively, it is possible to get more out of existing capacity and keep overall logistics costs better under control," the head of DFDS's Estonian branch said.

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