Vaht noted that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil ports have left a major hole in the aggressor state's exports.

"Russia exported five million barrels of crude oil per day through the Baltic Sea. The ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk accounted for roughly two million barrels per day of that total. Those two million barrels make up the 40 percent of the volume that has now been lost. If we put that into monetary terms and take today's Brent crude oil price of $115 per barrel, two million barrels times $115 equals $230 million per day. That's a pretty significant impact for as long as those ports remain closed," Vaht said.

According to Vaht, more is known about the damage at the port of Ust-Luga than at the Primorsk oil port. In Ust-Luga, the ship-loading infrastructure, storage tanks, and railway trestles—the rail loading capacity—have all been hit. Less information has leaked to the media about Primorsk, meaning the exact extent of the damage there remains unknown.

The Terminal board member stated that throughout the entire war in Ukraine, no sanction has been as effective as what Ukraine has achieved over the past ten days. In Vaht's assessment, Russia is losing $230 million per day solely due to Ukraine's attacks on its oil ports.

At the same time, Vaht pointed out that Russia is actually earning more now than before the war. Pre-war revenues were in the range of $300 million to $325 million, whereas today, despite a 40 percent drop in volume, revenues amount to $345 million.

In Vaht's view, however, it is difficult to predict how Russia's revenues and oil prices will develop in the future.

"It is forecast that the price could remain in the range of $100 to $190 per barrel. If that 40 percent—which is a massive amount—stays off the market and the price rises, that undoubtedly means additional revenue for Russia. To illustrate what those two million barrels actually mean: in just 3.8 days, Russia exports as much crude oil through the Baltic Sea as Estonia consumes in an entire year," Vaht explained.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that European countries should secure their own fuel. Markets reacted to the statement with a price surge.

"This is somewhat amusing, as Trump's statements have been highly erratic—one day he says one thing, and the next, something else. Over the past week, he has signaled that he wants a ceasefire and an end to the war. At the same time, however, he is threatening Iran, stating that if they do not reach an agreement on his terms, he is prepared to intensify bombings and attack energy infrastructure, including both power plants and oil facilities," Vaht said.

Vaht speculated that if Iran's oil infrastructure were to take a serious hit, it would, above all, carry a profound emotional and psychological weight for the country.

"Iran exports around 1.7 million barrels per day. Since 10 million barrels per day are already missing from the global market, that additional 1.7 million does not have a massive material impact. Emotionally, however, it is clear that if their oil infrastructure is hit, or if there is talk of seizing the Kharg Island archipelago—through which Iran exports 90 percent of its crude oil—it would represent a severe escalation. Such actions would trigger a sharp rise in oil prices," Vaht explained.

According to the Terminal management board member, Trump's rhetoric exerts a heavy influence on oil prices, astonishing even seasoned participants in the fuel market.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!