During Ukrainian attacks on oil ports along the Baltic Sea, Ukrainian drones have once again strayed from Russia into Estonia — both flying through its airspace and crashing down. How many have there been exactly? It's said the number is around ten.

I don't know. The Estonian Defense Forces' operations center likely has more precise information, but I see no reason to doubt the figure that has been mentioned — around ten.

Why aren't we given the exact number?

I can't speculate. On radar, a drone like that leaves a fairly small signature and if they're flying in a dense group, it's not possible to say with complete certainty whether there was one or several. The night was quite cloudy and NATO air policing aircraft went to take a look. Whether they saw all of them with their own eyes, I can't say. It seems they simply don't want to give a specific number if they aren't fully certain themselves. I think that's the main reason.

Can we be fairly certain these are Ukrainian drones and not Russian ones?

Fairly certain. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which they would be Russian drones — that would verge on a conspiracy theory. One could theoretically construct a scenario where, at the exact same time Ukraine was striking strategically important targets in Russia, Russia was playing a double game and launching devices resembling Ukrainian drones instead of defending itself. I strongly doubt that, but the theoretical possibility exists and can't be completely ruled out.

It has been said that these same Ukrainian drones were, so to speak, misled by the Russians and that this is how they ended up on our territory. If Russia interferes with a Ukrainian drone and throws it off course, whose drone is it in the end?

We can't really talk about a full takeover. It's more a matter of disrupting navigation so the drone strays from its programmed course. If they were that easy to take over, then Ust-Luga wouldn't be burning right now. Ukraine has also been using this kind of electronic interference against Russian attack waves for the past three and a half years — Shahed drones have been flying for nearly four years.

The success rate has fluctuated. At one point, reports suggested Ukraine could electronically mislead about 50 percent of Russian attack drones, but according to more recent data, that percentage has dropped significantly. It's difficult to do and it's a cat-and-mouse game where what matters is whose technology is superior at any given moment.

Why do these drones explode in midair?

Again, it's hard to say. If the drone had already been diverted, it may have done so for safety reasons — to avoid causing damage on the ground...

Are they programmed that way or is someone still controlling them remotely?

Hard to say. If it were known exactly how Ukraine controls these attack drones, it would be easier for Russia to mislead and jam them. Ukraine guards that secret very closely.

We've now been in a situation for four days where these drones have indeed been flying in our airspace. It's probably safe to assume this won't be the last time. Do you think so as well?

It's quite likely that Ukraine will continue defending itself and all of Europe against Russian imperialists.

Should our air defense be responding differently here in some way?

To answer that, we would have to go much deeper into the analysis than we can here. A few months ago, when the first drone incident happened, there was major confusion over the imposition of a restricted air zone. Planes could not take off from Tartu or could do so only with prior notice.

In peacetime airspace, where recreational pilots are flying and Tartu Airport is operating, opening fire the moment something appears on radar is very dangerous. Innocent people could be killed.

How many would have to appear for it to make sense to open fire? We're talking about around ten now, but if there were 50 — would that be the point where a response is warranted?

As long as we are operating under peacetime procedures and civilian use of the airspace has not been restricted, we first have to rule out that it is not one of our civilian aircraft. For that, NATO air policing has to fly to the location and the pilot must visually confirm that it is a dangerous drone.

Is there even time to do that? Estonia is so small that it's practically one big border. How quickly does a drone cross it?

If there were a deliberate attack against Estonia and we only detected it on radar, then our intelligence would have failed badly. A situation where Russia knowingly attacks Estonia and we only learn about it through radar while operating under peacetime procedures simply won't happen. These stray Ukrainian drones are, unfortunately, like chips flying when wood is chopped.

What does Estonia learn from all this in terms of organizing its drone capabilities? Do we have the capacity both to take drones down and to launch them?

Work is being done on launching capabilities. When it comes to taking them down, we currently rely on NATO allies for air policing. We ourselves have not purchased the necessary aerial assets for that. We do have leased L-39 aircraft that could be fitted with weapons, but since they are leased civilian planes used for training, we do not have the legal authority to arm them. In reality, having our own light fighter aircraft would give us a faster, more flexible and more cost-effective response capability.

As for ground brigades, they simply cannot get there in time if we only detect the device on radar. They would have to wait out in the field at night for weeks until something eventually appears. Keeping personnel deployed like that in peacetime would be extremely costly.

Where are these drones coming from in the first place? Are they trying to fly along Russia's border or do they assume Estonians are friendly and won't shoot them down?

No — Ukraine has clearly stated that it does not intentionally use our airspace and has apologized for the drones that have strayed here. They are certainly not doing this deliberately.

If we were to move into a crisis state and genuinely expect an attack from Russia, we do have the capability. It's just that maintaining constant readiness in peacetime is expensive, so we don't do that — but shifting to a higher state of readiness is a matter of an order from the government or the commander of the Defense Forces.

Can we sleep peacefully in the coming nights? No one really knows what the next night will bring.

Presumably, someone in Ukraine's command structures knows whether they will carry out attacks or not and then it becomes a question of how effective Russia's electronic warfare measures are at diverting them. Ukraine has been fighting for all of Europe for five years. It does make us uneasy, but when I speak with Ukrainian colleagues and they receive an air raid alert, they are so accustomed to it that they don't always even go to a shelter.

I hope Estonia never reaches such a reality. We are still living in peacetime and can afford to feel this anxiety and agitation when a drone falls into the forest at night.

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