Social Democrats see bump in February ratings
In February, Isamaa continues to lead the party ratings table ahead of the Center Party. SDE in third slightly increased its support and widened its lead over EKRE and the Reform Party.
In Kantar Emor's February survey, 24 percent supported Isamaa. In January, Isamaa's rating stood at 26 percent and in December at 24 percent. The party's support has fluctuated largely within this range over the past six months.
Isamaa's lead over the second-place Center Party (21 percent in February, 23 percent in January) remained the same as in the previous two months — 3 percentage points.
The Social Democratic Party ranked third with 16 percent. In January, SDE's support was 14 percent and in December 15 percent.
The rise in support helped SDE slightly widen its lead over EKRE and the Reform Party. EKRE's support in February was 13 percent, the same as in January, while the Reform Party stood at 12 percent (13 percent in January).
The extra-parliamentary Parempoolsed (Right-wingers) would also comfortably clear the electoral threshold, with 8 percent support in February. In January, their support in Kantar Emor's poll was 7 percent.
Support for the other governing party, Eesti 200, remains clearly below the electoral threshold. The party was backed by 2 percent in February, while in January its support hit a record low of 1 percent.
The Greens were supported by 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month, the same rating as the party Koos. The Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives' (ERK) support remained below 1 percent.
The governing coalition's combined rating in February, as in January, was a modest 14 percent.
In February, 25 percent of respondents (23 percent in January) were unable to name a preference.
When respondents without a preference are included, support for Isamaa in February was 18 percent, the Center Party 16 percent and SDE 12 percent. EKRE stood at 10 percent, the Reform Party at 9 percent and Parempoolsed at 6 percent in this calculation.
Among ethnic Estonian respondents, Isamaa led in February with 28 percent. It was followed by SDE at 17 percent, EKRE at 15 percent, the Reform Party at 14 percent, the Center Party at 12 percent and Parempoolsed at 10 percent.
Center first preference of Russian-speaking voters
Among respondents of other nationalities, the Center Party remains the clear leader, receiving 70 percent support in this group.
Support for SDE among these respondents stood at 7 percent, while Isamaa and EKRE each had 6 percent. Koos, which has virtually no support among ethnic Estonians, received 4 percent among respondents of other nationalities — the same combined total as the Reform Party and Eesti 200 (3 percent and 1 percent, respectively).
Among voters in Tallinn, the Center Party was the most popular at 33 percent, followed by SDE with 19 percent, Isamaa with 14 percent, the Reform Party with 12 percent and Parempoolsed with 11 percent. EKRE's support in Tallinn was 6 percent and Eesti 200 stood at 2 percent.
The combined rating in Tallinn of the Center Party and Isamaa, which govern the capital, declined somewhat compared with January. While their joint support last month totaled 54 percent (36 + 18), in February it was 47 percent.
The combined support in Tallinn for the opposition — SDE, the Reform Party and Parempoolsed — rose from 33 percent in January to 42 percent in February.
In Ida-Viru County, the Center Party was the most popular party, while in other regions Isamaa led.
In the youngest age groups (18–24 and 25–34), SDE was the most popular choice. Among those aged 35–44, Isamaa and the Center Party enjoyed equal support, as they did in the 65–74 age group. Isamaa was the most popular choice among those aged 50–64, while the Center Party was the top choice among respondents aged 75 and older.
EKRE and Parempoolsed have more male voters, while the Center Party and SDE have a higher share of female supporters. Supporters of Isamaa, the Reform Party and Eesti 200 are split roughly evenly between men and women.
Kantar Emor surveyed 1,446 voting-age citizens across Estonia online and by phone from February 11–18. With this sample size, the maximum margin of error is ±2.1 percentage points.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Urmet Kook
