Three of the four years of the current Riigikogu term have already passed and one remains. And that one will go by very quickly. The pace and intensity of politics in the year ahead will certainly be far greater than in the previous three. This year will unfold under the banner of elections: the presidential election as a prelude and the Riigikogu elections a little more than a year from now as the final act.

We are heading into these elections in a highly exceptional situation, in a completely new political reality. It is worth recalling this as it helps us better understand what is coming in the year ahead.

For more than two years now, Isamaa has led public opinion polls by a wide margin as the most preferred party among Estonian voters. Since the end of 2023, Isamaa's support has held steady at 25 percent. Such a situation has not previously existed in Estonia's political landscape. At the same time, the Reform Party has fallen just as steadily to below the 20 percent level and has remained there for the past two years as well. That, too, has not previously occurred for such a prolonged period in Estonia's political arena.

No other party in the recent past has enjoyed support as stable as Isamaa's over the past two years. And the Reform Party's support has consistently remained where it fell. True, at the beginning of this year it briefly showed faster growth, momentarily climbing back to around 15 percent, but that rise quickly stalled and at the time of writing there are rather signs that the Reform Party's rating will again remain below 15 percent. The more the final year before the elections ticks by, the greater the likelihood that the election result will correspond to these numbers.

If election day carves these support figures into seats in the Riigikogu, a great deal will change in Estonian politics. A large number of new politicians will gain employment and many old ones will be left without it. But not only that. The entire structure of power will also change.

The Reform Party's power network within state structures, which until now has held a hegemonic position, will be broken. In its place, Isamaa and the Center Party will emerge as the primary actors and it will depend on them which governments are possible and which are not.

In such a situation, the losers inevitably grow increasingly nervous. In addition to the Reform Party, this group also includes Eesti 200 whose support numbers have fallen far short of the electoral threshold [of 5 percent] for the past year and a half. Given these ratings dynamics and the party's current activity, it is virtually certain that it will not rise above the threshold again. The party was given an opportunity by voters and let it slip; no new opportunity will come. But as defeat begins to sink in and there is effectively nothing more to lose, behavior inevitably becomes bolder, more chaotic, more reckless.

We received a brief preview in recent weeks of what the coming year may bring in observing how the government and the president interacted and positioned themselves.

Yes, President Alar Karis did not move precisely in step with the government's tactical lead, but there was nothing unprecedented or extraordinary in his words regarding Russia's war against Ukraine.

The government could have decided to quietly smooth over this minor angle and allow Estonia to continue calmly on its course. Instead, the decision was made to present the president's words to the public in the most malicious and distorted way possible, to the point that Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) said that President Karis was "scraping at the Kremlin's door." Such words from the foreign minister are, frankly, unhinged. What should in fact be a major scandal is that the Estonian government would so contrivedly and excessively attack Estonia's president.

The episode in question is a symptom of panic and nervousness. And of highly irrational behavior, the result of which ultimately harms not only those involved in the government but also the reputation of the Estonian state. It seems to have been forgotten that President Alar Karis exists for voters on an entirely different level than the prime minister, the foreign minister, the governing parties taken individually or the government as a whole.

For voters, President Karis is currently one of the most well-liked public figures. He occupies roughly the same territory as Arvo Pärt or Ivo Linna. Everyone knows him well, he is liked by very many and disliked by very few.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal, by contrast, stands at the opposite extreme on the likeability–dislikeability spectrum, roughly in the same territory as Varro Vooglaid or Brigitte Susanne Hunt. These are also individuals known to almost everyone, but liked by very few and disliked by very many. Roughly more than two-thirds of Estonian citizens trust the president as an institution, while roughly fewer than one-third trust the government as an institution. And the combined support of the governing parties has remained at a world-record low of around 15 percent for quite some time.

In such a situation, deciding to attack the president when there was no direct cause to do so — presumably in the hope of scoring political points — was a very short-sighted move. The president's reputation did not suffer from it; the reputation of the ministers and governing parties likely did. Because when trust and respect for you are lacking, you are not in a position to attack someone who is trusted and respected.

This recent episode was an example of the kind of politics we are likely to see more and more frequently in the coming year. The Russia card will be played morning, noon and night. Under pressure, the seams will come apart and unpredictable steps will be taken. All that remains now is to wish voters steady nerves. Do not let yourselves be confused and stand firm.

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