"It is very difficult to say. This decision is not made in a particularly collegial manner. It is ultimately the decision of the President of the United States whether to order an attack or not. What is certain is that specific plans exist to be implemented if an order like that is given. A considerable amount of firepower has been concentrated in the region. This suggests that preparations are likely not only for a one-off strike, such as the attack on nuclear facilities, but, if necessary, for something longer and more comprehensive," Mikser said.

The MEP said he could not specify the precise objective of any potential military intervention at present.

"It is difficult to say. Just a month ago there was large-scale unrest when reportedly many protesters were killed in the Iranian security forces' crackdown. At that moment, one might have assumed intervention aimed specifically at protecting civilians and stopping those brutalities. At present, official U.S. rhetoric focuses more on irreversibly ending Iran's nuclear program and the perceived need to do so. There are certainly also domestic political considerations that could influence such a decision. The expectations of America's allies, Israel foremost, are also at play. Ultimately, if such a decision is made, it will likely be a combination of several factors," was Mikser's assessment.

Although negotiations between the United States and Iran have taken place in the meantime, Mikser said there is undoubtedly fear in Tehran that the United States might attempt to topple the regime this time. At the same time, Mikser noted that the Trump administration probably has little desire to tie American military forces to Iran for a prolonged period. "The United States is certainly seeking an exit that would not result in an unpopular long-term military operation among voters, resembling the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is little appetite for that within American society," he said.

The situation with Iran is certainly more complicated than has been the case with Venezuela, so far as U.S. aims go.

"This is a considerably larger country with nearly 100 million inhabitants. Its territory covers 1.6 million square kilometers, which is 2.5 times larger than Ukraine," Mikser, a former defense minister, noted.

While political unrest is growing again following a period of mourning over deaths seen at the last wave of major protests 40 days ago, Mikser said he thought it unlikely a new government could be installed via U.S. airstrikes alone.
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-protests-mourning-antiestablishment/33681559.html

"There are several exile groups known to be seeking support from both the Americans and the Europeans, yet these groups are quite hostile toward one another. It is far from certain that Iranian society would welcome exile governments brought in from abroad with open arms," Mikser noted.

"The Americans would certainly be capable of causing significant destruction and striking high-value targets via airstrikes, but regime change also means installing a new authority and consolidating that — something which cannot be done solely from the air or with precision strikes alone. This is certainly the most major complication and strategic concern for the Americans, and above all for Iran's neighboring countries."

The MEP noted that although Iran also has a vast military, the U.S. holds a significant advantage with its air capabilities and aircraft carriers. "The superiority of the U.S. Air Force is very substantial, and their ability to suppress Iran's limited air defenses is considerable," Mikser said.

"I believe the Americans' interest is to conduct the operation with as few losses as possible. The American public does not want to see fallen soldiers or lost aircraft or ships. If a situation arises requiring boots on the ground in Iran, it would turn into a far more complex task. It is almost impossible to carry this out clinically without casualties on one's own side — at least there is no experience of that so far," Mikser summed up.

Background:

Last month's protests in Iran predated the heading to the Middle East of the Lincoln Strike Group and Ford Strike Group, both named after the Nimitz- and Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers which form the nucleus of said groups.

Another significant indicator of a potential strike has been the deployment of E-3 Sentry Airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft

President Donald Trump yesterday called for Iran to make a deal over ending its nuclear weapons program or face "really bad things," within a deadline of 10–15 days.

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