This week, drone concerns and a suspected airspace incursion have prompted robust responses in Latvia and Lithuania, ranging from shelter orders and closing schools to suspending rail service and even air traffic at Vilnius Airport.

Drones have also been detected in Estonian airspace, including one shot down by a Romanian fighter jet over Lake Võrtsjärv on Tuesday, but Estonian authorities have not taken similarly broad measures.

Former EDF commander and retired Gen. Martin Herem told ERR Thursday that authorities should assess a potential drone's trajectory and respond locally rather than issue blanket warnings and orders.

"I would not say this is an overreaction — or an underreaction on our part," he said. "We should utilize the measures we have available."

In most cases, the former EDF commander said, widespread sheltering would be unnecessary.

"If we've got a single drone moving here and we can see its flight trajectory, then we can predict where it's going," he noted. "There's definitely no point ending the entire country to their basements. They don't do that in Ukraine either."

Instead, warnings should be limited to affected areas based on real-time tracking.

"If we see something dangerous flying on a course over Võru, Põlva, Tartu or Jõgeva counties, localized sheltering can be used in those areas," he said, adding that such decisions must be made by regional command centers.

He also said improved air defense capabilities are boosting confidence among decision-makers following recent cases in which drones were brought down in Estonian airspace.

Missile interception likely best option

Herem said intercepting drones with fighter jets and missiles is costly, but in many cases can be safer than alternatives.

"If you fire a missile at a target like that, it and the missile itself will likely be blown into such tiny pieces that falling debris will more likely cause some roof damage rather than major destruction," he explained.

He warned, however, that shooting down low-flying drones can create additional ground-level risk depending on angle and location. That includes with gunfire.

"Simply put, if a drone enters Tallinn, you can use that 12.7 mm machine gun on it, but if it has already passed [the air defense line], you shouldn't fire toward Tallinn anymore, because all that ammunition eventually comes down," Herem said.

"Firing from Lasnamäe toward the city, you'd essentially be spraying Town Hall Square with machine-gun ammunition," he added.

The former EDF commander emphasized that defense of critical infrastructure should take place further out, ideally along Estonia's borders.

"The first defense zone should be the front or, in our case, Estonia's border, and 20–30 kilometers inward," Herem said, adding that this should be the first layer where any drones are engaged.

In Estonia, he continued, that would mean the eastern border, possibly a buffer zone with Latvia, and the coastline, with layered defenses in place, including 12.7 or 23 mm machine guns, or CV90 infantry fighting vehicles equipped with 35 mm chain guns.

"These are all systems used in Ukraine," he noted, adding that the approach is based on air surveillance, which he said is steadily improving in Estonia.

Forested terrain hampers detection

According to Herem, Estonia's terrain and tree cover make drone detection here more difficult than in Ukraine.

"At around 50 meters altitude, a drone is difficult to detect even by radar," he said. "At 3–5 kilometers, it's already out of view even for ground-based radar systems designed for that purpose."

In Estonia's forested terrain, visibility drops quickly, with trees averaging 18 meters already blocking detection "within a few kilometers." By contrast, Ukraine has larger open areas that allow for significantly greater visibility from a single elevated point.

Herem noted that Ukraine also relies heavily on layered defenses, including helicopters, light aircraft and interceptor drones. About half of drones are shot down from the former two, he said, with another 30 percent shot down by interceptor drones.

"All these systems need to be combined and utilized," he emphasized. "I know the EDF is quietly taking these steps here."

Only seconds to react

Herem said civilians may only have seconds to react if a drone is nearby.

"You can hear them about 15 seconds before they reach you or fly past," he said, noting the drones are flying 150 km/h.

"That's what they do in Ukraine," the former defense chief explained. "When there is an alert, you might continue whatever you're doing, but you keep your ears open. And if you hear that buzzing sound, you have about 15 seconds to take cover."

He said at that point, people should avoid moving between buildings or trying to reach a public shelter, and stick to simple sheltering principles where they are instead.

"If you hear that noise, move immediately [and shelter] using the two-wall rule," Herem said, referring to placing at least two walls between yourself and the outdoors.

"Even a bathroom if necessary, or a basement," he added. "If you don't have two walls, lie flat on the ground. That already helps a lot."

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