Ukraine has also been making small tactical gains, something it will need to build on in order to get as amenable and fair a peace deal as possible, given the failure of the shuttle diplomacy seen in recent years.

At the same time, Väli noted, Russia has been overwhelming Ukraine's air defenses, the general added, speaking to "Ukraina stuudio."

Russian forces have made slight gains in the Kharkiv region in the north, while at the same time, the Ukrainians have managed to isolate Russian units in Kup'yans'k, Kharkiv oblast.

"Hopefully, the Russians can be pushed out of these settlements. Donetsk remains the focal point. Pokrovsk is already a familiar name to all, and the fighting is ongoing around it. South of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainians have again achieved some minor success and managed to liberate a few square kilometers from the Russians," Väli said.

He noted that in Zaporizhzhia to the south, too, Ukrainian counterattacks have succeeded in halting Russian advances and stalling their offensive.

According to Väli, the disruption of communications through Elon Musk's SpaceX satellite internet constellation system has impacted Russian forces.

"Its use made information exchange easier for the Russians, as it is quite difficult to jam. As a result, their airstrikes became more precise and coordination of unit movements improved," Väli said.

Russian tactics involve probing for weak spots along the front by sending in small groups. When a weak point is discovered, more force needs to be deployed there to develop the offensive. However, that cannot be done without communications.

"Since the Ukrainians are successfully jamming everything else, the use of Starlink was vital for the Russians. It was briefly shut down at the start of February to identify terminals that the Russians were using after smuggling them in illegally. Communications have now been restored and the Russians have been cut off from it. But this is only one aspect; there are certainly many other factors at play, including the weather: The cold, snow and the difficult terrain," Väli said. Russia has also barred access to the Telegram messenger app, even as this is a Russian-developed platform. Apps like these, too, have a use for maintaining communications during wartime, he said (initially Telegram was being used to communicate Russian dissatisfaction over the Starlink downtime also – ed.).

"In war, any tool that solves a problem is suitable. If the frequency bands used by the enemy get detected, they are immediately jammed and efforts are made to shut them down. But if you have any kind of internet connection that allows you to access and exchange information, that helps you out of trouble," he noted.

As to why Russia is doing this, the answer is that the country is seeking to bring internet communications more under state control, not least, Väli noted, with presidential elections taking place this year and so a crackdown on potential dissent.

The retired general and former MP also said that Russia has in any case been overwhelming Ukraine's air defenses with targets, especially drones.

"In January, the Russian side used around 6,000 different drones against Ukraine, in addition to roughly 150 missiles and about 5,000 glide bombs. That is a very large number of targets launched toward Ukraine on a daily basis. All of this must be responded to using various means that must be coordinated with each other. Ukraine has a very strong multi-layered air defense, but unfortunately the volume is so great, and of course air defense systems are also worn down in combat. There are simply too many Russian targets to respond to everything with one hundred percent effectiveness," he went on.

That Russia is able to produce missiles on such a scale is down to the fact that the country's military-industrial complex operates on different principles than seen in the West, Väli explained.

"Our defense industry is privately based and producers have to be negotiated with, whereas there, the state's influence over production is much greater. If a factory director thinks about not fulfilling an order, he would be better off not flying on airplanes or finding himself on the upper floors of tall buildings," Väli dryly observed.

Russia is also involved in the smuggling of components needed for production, which due to sanctions it cannot now source as easily: it is aided in this by China and Iran, Väli said.

"But this is not without problems. For example, the [Iranian-made] Geran-2 drone, which is widely used by the Russian side, initially cost approximately US$48,000, but now people are talking about US$80,000 per unit. So it is not painless for the Russian side either," Väli noted.

Russia has been dogged since the start of its invasion by an inability to get soldiers where they are needed and quickly; this was already seen in Russia's failure to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war.

The Starlink satellite constellation provides internet access to more remote areas where standard infrastructure may not reach, or indeed areas where infrastructure has been damaged by conflict – so in this respect it is a vital service for Ukraine too; Estonia alone has provided over €3 million in aid for Ukraine to purchase the sstems.

While for Russia, Starlink is subject to sanctions, Russian buyers have reportedly been able to obtain it, albeit at a higher price, via mediators, particularly in Dubai.

Russians have also posed as Ukrainians in purchasing the tech, though this also lends itself to short-term intel, hacking and espionage options, for instance if a honey-pot is set up with Ukrainians posing as disaffected sellers of Starlink ground terminals which track Russian positions and movements.

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