Controlling Ukraine is an obsession for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as he believes it would restore Russia's position as a superpower and give him decision-making power over issues related to European security.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service's annual report, which was released this week, peace negotiations are merely a tactic to gain an advantage that could help Russia win the war and weaken the unity of Western countries. At the same time, Russia does not intend to attack Estonia or any other NATO member state militarily this year or, most likely, next year either.

"Putin respects NATO and has calculated very carefully that entering into a direct conflict head-on would be fatal for him. At the same time, military reforms will increase Russia's military capabilities in the future. In addition to increasing the number of armed forces personnel, preparations are being made for the next possible war by restoring strategic reserves of artillery ammunition," said Kaupo Rosin, head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

Russia has increased its production of artillery ammunition more than 17-fold in the past four years. Last year, Russia produced a total of 7 million shells, mines and rockets. All branches of the Russian military have also begun to create large-scale drone units. NATO allies therefore have to be prepared for Russia to have up to 190 battalions in the future that use unmanned systems on land, in the air and at sea to perform both combat and support tasks.

"Russia is continuously developing its drone capabilities and plans to deploy them throughout the Russian army structure, which poses a major threat to all countries," said Henrik Praks, a researcher at the Tallinn-based International Center for Defense Studies.

"As we have seen from recent incidents in Poland over the past year, but also elsewhere, we and the West do not yet have a good answer for how to repel these drones when they come in large numbers, and this is an area that undoubtedly needs to be addressed with a great deal of commitment," Praks added.

However, the continuation of the war in Ukraine is also causing increased instability in Russia. The war-focused economy is not doing well, and ordinary citizens are feeling the impact in the form of a gasoline crisis and higher taxes. Russia's state budget was revised twice last year. The reasons for this are increased war costs and reduced energy revenues.

"They are very vulnerable today. The war economy consumes most of their resources and lifting sanctions is their main goal. In our view, the Russian economy is currently on the right track. So, now is the right time to step up the pressure," said Rosin.

However, the Foreign Intelligence Service considers it unlikely the Russian economy will collapse completely in the near future. According to economic and security expert Raivo Vare, Russia will remain stable for at least another year if China, Iran and North Korea continue to support it in the same way as they have done up to now.

"If they don't, then the picture will change more quickly, but for now, just looking at the scale of the economy and the so-called mentality – from the Kremlin down to ordinary people – the inertia in the society will definitely continue for another year. Unfortunately. And, by the way, Putin is currently playing on this, if you look at it closely," said Vare.

Ending the war in Ukraine would also be dangerous for the Russian regime.

It would remove the justifications and excuses currently being used when domestic problems arise. Russia also lacks sufficient resources to reintegrate large numbers of murderers and rapists returning from the frontline back into society.

---

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!