Col. Kiviselg said at his weekly Friday briefing at the Ministry of Defense: "Russian troop advancement toward Pokrovsk has so far been relatively modest. At least as of the end of October, [Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery] Gerasimov's promises to Putin about encircling Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk have been misleading, and there is no reason to believe the situation will change in the next week or two."

Pokrovsk, in Donetsk Oblast, remains a focal point of Russian pressure, he said. Of the roughly 200 combat engagements taking place daily across the front line over the past two weeks, more than a third, approximately 80, have occurred in the direction of Pokrovsk. Russia is also concentrating its airstrikes in that area.

The number of Russian attacks has increased significantly in the past two weeks, the colonel noted. While previously there were around 160 combat engagements per day, the number has now risen to 200, or even 250 on record-setting days.

Kiviselg also drew attention to the difficult situation for Ukraine in the Oleksandrivka area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where Russian forces have recently made their most significant gains. This raises the risk of a tactical breakthrough in that area.

"At this point, it is difficult to say whether Russian units managed to carry out a successful surprise attack there, similar to what was briefly seen near Pokrovsk, or if the Ukrainian defensive line simply did not hold under pressure. But this could certainly put the entire Huliaipole area at risk," Kiviselg said.

In other sections of the front, there have been no significant developments, and the situation has remained relatively static, he added.

Critical infrastructure attacks

Kiviselg also noted that there have been no major changes in Russia's combined missile and drone strike tactics targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

Russia has not sharply increased the number of drones used in a single attack, but it is visibly adapting to Ukrainian countermeasures by continuously altering and combining flight paths and altitudes, the number of drones and missiles per target, and other parameters.

"Therefore, despite Ukraine's successful countermeasures — shooting down over 70 percent of drones — Russia, through continuous adaptation, has managed to cause considerable damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure," he said.

The most recent large-scale attack of this kind occurred on November 8, and another occurred during the night leading into Friday.

Kiviselg said Russia is currently capable of launching three to four major airstrikes per month, involving hundreds of Shahed-type drones combined with dozens of missiles.

Strategic goals: war fatigue and normalization

The head of military intelligence also pointed out that Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, now approaching its fourth year, has become routine and society is adapting.

"It is worth highlighting that this sense of war fatigue and normalization, both in Ukraine and among its international supporters, is one of the methods Russia uses to advance its strategic goals in Ukraine," he stressed.

Kiviselg pointed out that Russia has not changed its strategic objectives regarding Ukraine. This is clear from looking at recent statements issued by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

Amid recent renewed discussions of possible U.S.–Russia negotiations to end the war, both Peskov and Lavrov once again emphasized that Russia has not abandoned its original goal of bringing the entire country under its control, Kiviselg said.

At the same time, the operational-level situation offers Russia little hope of achieving its objectives, he added.

Since Russia's major retreat in the fall of 2022, it has only managed to capture about 5,700 square kilometers, or roughly 1 percent of Ukraine's territory, since November 22. This means the Russian Armed Forces have failed to make significant progress toward achieving Putin's strategic goals, said Kiviselg.

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