Estonian intel: Pokrovsk likely to fall by year end, but Russian gains limited
The eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is likely to fall by year's end, but Russian forces will lack the reserves for further breakthroughs later, Estonian intelligence said.
Pressure on the city continues, mostly in a gray zone where small units clash directly.
While the city may fall by the end of the year, the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Military Intelligence Center says Russia has no reserves for further advances beyond that. Drone and missile attacks on the area have also increased in recent months.
"This kind of attrition tactic and the targeting of sites in the rear by the Russians confirms that their army is not capable of breaking through the front line and defeating the Ukrainians in a conventional sense," said Military Intelligence Center director Col. Ants Kiviselg.
War bloggers are debating whether defending Pokrovsk is still strategically worth it.
Reserve Col. Hannes Toomsalu said there are two reasons to hold the city: one political, the other tactical. If Pokrovsk falls, moving units as both sides are currently doing would become difficult.
"One [thing] is the defensive lines that have been built out there for them," Toomsalu said.
He added that he does't believe Russian forces would push beyond Donetsk because they no longer have the momentum.
This is apparent in how units are constantly moved along the front, he explained — whenever a small breakthrough or any progress is achieved, both the Russians and the Ukrainians reposition their troops.
Ukrainian forces may have an edge here because their lines are shorter and easier to manage.
"Right now, they're able to move it," Toomsalu said. "But if Pokrovsk fell, that might no longer be possible."
Roads are already impassable in Ukraine, he added, giving Ukrainian forces another advantage as they know the area better than their attackers.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Aili Vahtla
