Despite Russia's active offensive operations — about one-third of all combat engagements are taking place near Pokrovsk — the 192nd week of the war has brought no changes at the strategic or operational level, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces' Intelligence Center, at the Ministry of Defense's weekly briefing. He noted that Russia is suffering heavy losses in its assault on Pokrovsk, including in armored equipment.

Kiviselg emphasized that despite Russia's triumphant reports, the fall of the area is still not a matter of days and claims by Russian forces about encircling Ukrainian units in Myrnohrad or elsewhere in the Pokrovsk area should be treated with great skepticism.

"It is, of course, clear that sooner or later Ukraine will have to withdraw its units from the Pokrovsk area. But as I've said before, the fall of the Pokrovsk area into Russian hands would not determine the overall picture of the war in Ukraine," Kiviselg said. He pointed out that Ukrainian forces have established defensive lines both north and west of Pokrovsk, which should prevent a major Russian breakthrough.

Russian air strikes a cause for concern

Russia's drone and missile strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are far more critical, said Kiviselg. He specifically highlighted a massive coordinated attack on October 30, in which 653 drones and 52 missiles of various types were launched simultaneously.

"Missiles have significantly greater destructive power than attack drones, and as a result, Ukrainians are in a difficult situation — recovering from such destruction is very hard and in some cases impossible," he explained.

According to Kiviselg, the aim of Russia's airstrikes is to break Ukraine's will to resist in the coming months.

"In a sense, Putin has now put all his bets on one card — winning the war on his own terms. The root cause of this war lies in Putin's refusal to accept Ukraine's independence from Russia," Kiviselg said, adding that the war against Ukraine has become not only Putin's war but something intrinsic to Russia itself.

"In other words, the human losses and the economic decline Russia is already facing and will continue to face leave [Russian regime leader Vladimir] Putin with few options other than trying to push through his maximal objectives, rather than making concessions during possible negotiations," he said.

Three scenarios

Kiviselg also outlined three possible scenarios for how the situation in Ukraine could evolve.

In the first scenario, Russia's aggression would halt with a ceasefire due to both sides lacking the capacity to achieve a breakthrough, he said. If such a ceasefire were agreed along current front lines — with the potential for minor territorial exchanges or swaps involving critical infrastructure — it would still only be a temporary solution, Kiviselg argued.

A second, albeit unlikely, possibility would involve a decrease in international support for Ukraine, which could lead to a scenario where the war ends on Russia's terms and Ukraine loses its sovereignty. Even in such a case, Ukraine would likely continue to resist through unconventional means.

"But I want to stress once again that this course of events is unlikely," Kiviselg said.

The third scenario, which Kiviselg also deemed rather unlikely, envisions growing socioeconomic instability in Russia rendering it incapable of continuing the war. Under pressure from an internal crisis, Putin would agree to peace talks and accept terms put forward by Ukraine.

"It is not very likely, however, that the 1991 borders would be restored," he noted.

"Lastly, I have to point out what unfortunately appears to be the most realistic course of action — that Russia's aggression against Ukraine continues in the form it currently takes," Kiviselg said.

This scenario assumes that Putin cannot afford a defeat and his unwillingness to make concessions forces Russia to continue the war, the intelligence chief concluded.

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