"The constantly rising intensity and expanding geographical scope of Ukraine's drone and missile attacks, along with the increasing number of attack weapons and wider ranges of those weapons, is certainly likely to pose more and more serious problems for the Russian Federation in the near future," said Col. Kiviselg at this week's Ministry of Defense Friday press briefing.

The EDF colonel cited last week's Ukrainian attacks on Russian missile and artillery arsenals in Kostroma Oblast and a military factory in Lipetsk Oblast as key examples.

"The Russian Federation has stated in publicly available sources that Ukraine has attacked targets in Moscow Oblast on a daily basis so far this year," the colonel added.

Col. Kiviselg suggested a number of factors that may lead to greater problems for both the Russian Armed Forces and the country's economy over the next year.

First, the number of potentially important targets for Ukraine on Russian territory, and the fact they are distributed so widely across Russia. Second, the volume of defense ammunition already the Russian Armed Forces have already used up during the war, as well as the number of air defense systems that have been destroyed.

"Therefore, it can be estimated that in 2026, the activity as well as accuracy of Ukraine's long-range strikes will rise, and damage to the Russian armed forces and economy will increase even further," said the head of defense intelligence.

"This, in turn, reduces Russia's ability to both continue the war and develop the Russian narrative that it has inexhaustible resources and therefore the ability to wage war for as long as necessary," Col. Kiviselg explained.

"In other words, we can see that both the Russian Federation's defense capabilities and its resilience to these types of attacks against Ukraine are likely to decline in 2026," he predicted.

Russia's use of Oreshnik ballistic missile a message to the West

Col. Kiviselg also pointed out that on Thursday, Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, firing an "Oreshnik" ballistic missile at a gas storage facility in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.

"What makes this particular attack remarkable is that it is only the second time a strike of this kind has been carried out during the war so far. On the previous occasion, a similar type of ballistic missile was used on November 21, 2024, to attack Dnipro. However, this attack (on Thursday) was much closer to the Polish border – approximately 80-100 kilometers away. So, it was definitely a signal to Europe or NATO," said Col. Kiviselg.

According to the EDF intelligence chief, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Thursday's attack was carried out in connection with an alleged attack by Ukraine on the Russian presidential residence in Valdai. Ukraine has, however, denied that attack, with both Estonian and other Western intelligence agencies unable confirm in any way that it took place. Col. Kiviselg therefore underscored that it is most likely part of a Russian smear campaign.

No other changes

Regarding the situation on the front line, Col. Kiviselg said there have been no significant developments since the turn of the year. Active military operations have continued as before across the entire front.

"The intensity of combat was somewhat lower at the beginning of the year and for the first few days, but it then rose significantly. The number of daily combat engagements essentially doubled from January 4, reaching a level of 200-230 combat engagements per day," he said.

According to the Col. Kiviselg, the Russian Armed Forces' main focus is still on attacks in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad section of Donetsk Oblast and in the direction of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

"The Russian Federation has also been extremely active in the Kostiantynivka, Oleksandrivka, Lyman, and South Slobozhanske areas. Russian units have managed to advance in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Huliaipole, the Stepnohirsk region, and Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continued their active defensive operations, organizing counterattacks in the Huliaipole region and liberating Kupiansk," he said.

Col. Kiviselg pointed out that, the number of weapons used in individual attacks on Ukrainian energy systems and critical infrastructure was lower over the past week than during those that took place in December.

"It can be said that the situation with Ukraine's energy system has remained under control up to now, or at least until the attack late yesterday evening. The damage is still being repaired, and the electricity supply is being restored in the affected regions," he explained.

Russia continues to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure, further demonstrating its brutal attitude toward the civilian population. That is also evidenced by the fact that those tasked with repairing the damage or providing medical assistance at the site of attacks, are also being targeted.

"On a positive note, Ukraine's air defenses were reinforced at the end of last year with two Patriot air defense missile systems transferred from Germany. They entered combat duty at the beginning of this year and will definitely contribute to improving the protection of important objects against aerial threats," the EDF colonel said.

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