EDF colonel: Russia's approach not altered by changing weather conditions

The changing weather conditions in Ukraine have not affected the overall course of Russia's aggression, Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the EDF Intelligence Center, said on Friday. In the coming weeks, Russia is expected to continue its winter bombing campaign, which mainly targets civilian infrastructure.
Speaking at this Friday's weekly Ministry of Defense press briefing, Col. Kiviselg said the weather conditions last week did not lead to any changes on the battlefield. "The Russian Federation has not slowed down its war machine, but continues to press very aggressively against Ukraine's defensive positions."
However, according to Col. Kiviselg, the Russians have not been able to take advantage of their superior manpower. On a tactical level, Russia has shifted from meaningful and planned actions to the routine and indifferent following of orders, resulting in the loss of a colossal number of lives.
"It has to be acknowledged that, despite continued pressure from the Russian Federation, the situation on the front line has not changed significantly, with only minor tactical movements on the ground and the main activity is still concentrated around Pokrovsk. It can be said that Pokrovsk has become a goal in itself, with Russian Federation military personnel under a great deal of pressure to capture the town. No major settlements have been captured in the last year, and Russian military personnel continue to be given various deadlines to take the settlement of Pokrovsk by mid-November or December 1 at the latest," said the EDF colonel.
If Pokrovsk does fall, it is not expected to have a major impact on the overall situation on the ground. According to current assessments, the infiltration tactics used by Russia and the apparent lack of necessary reserves would not enable them to concentrate enough forces in the area to use capturing Pokrovsk as a springboard to make further breakthroughs.
At the same time, according to the colonel, it is likely that after the capture of Pokrovsk, fighting will intensify in other directions besides Donetsk.
Russia is compensating for its failures on the battlefield with widespread attacks across the rest of Ukraine. In addition to the now customary missile and drone attacks, drones have begun to attack areas close to the front line. In the last week, there have been a lot of incidents near Kherson, in which civilians have been specifically targeted.
The number of drone attacks in October (approx. 5,300) was similar to September (approx. 5,600). However, there was a significant increase in the use of missiles in similar attacks, with 44 percent more launched in October than September.
"While rockets were used approximately 185 times in September, they were used around 270 times in October, which, according to some data, is the highest number of rockets used in a single month during the entire period of the active war," Col. Kiviselg said.
Last week and throughout October, it was evident Russia was aiming to take advantage of the poor weather conditions, which reduced the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense considerably, to carry out more drone and rocket attacks, the EDF colonel explained.
"Despite massive long-range and drone attacks, Ukraine's air defense has remained very effective. Ukraine manages to eliminate about 80 percent of the airborne weapons aimed at Ukrainian targets before they reach those targets," Col. Kiviselg said.
"Unfortunately, we see that the Russian Federation continues to disregard the principles of international law when it comes to warfare, with new evidence of this emerging on a weekly basis," he said.
In the coming weeks, Russia is expected to continue its winter bombing campaign, which is mainly targeting civilian infrastructure. Col. Kiviselg said it is likely that there will be three or four waves of more massive attacks over the next month.
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Editor: Barbara Oja, Michael Cole










