The Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center shares information about the situation in Ukraine every week. On Friday, Kaju stepped in for the head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Col. Ants Kiviselg.

"The main axis of attack on the front remains Donetsk Oblast and the area around the city of Pokrovsk. For the most part, both the city of Pokrovsk and the city of Myrnohrad are under either direct or indirect control of Russian armed forces. Therefore, it is very likely that both settlements will fall under Russian control in December," Kaju said at the Ministry of Defense's weekly press conference.

"However, despite the fact that these cities are largely under the control of Russian armed forces, there has not yet been any definite report that they have fallen," he added.

The Russians have made some gains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, about 100 kilometers southwest of Pokrovsk, so the pressure in that area remains extremely high.

"Furthermore, Russia has once again activated large-scale attacks using various types of aerial weapons, including drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles, against Ukraine's civilian population and critical infrastructure across the entire country," the official said.

"In addition to drones, glide bombs continue to be used. The difference is that glide bombs are likely used primarily to attack Ukrainian front-line and rear units. So there is a very clear distinction here: drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles are used against civilian infrastructure and the civilian population, while glide bombs are primarily used against military units," Kaju explained.

Looking at the overall front-line picture, Kaju said it's evident that the Russians' advance is not very rapid.

"Even though they are still seizing territory piece by piece. One of their tactics for achieving these small gains is to attack the supply routes of Ukrainian front-line units, meaning that the units fighting on the front are as poorly or irregularly supplied as possible. As a result, both the morale of the fighters and their combat capability decline. This is how the Russian side tries to gain an advantage," Kaju said.

He noted that Ukraine has continued attacks on Russian territory.

"Whereas previously attacks on Russian territory occurred around 160 kilometers from the front line, on November 17 Ukraine used ATACMS missiles to strike the area around the settlement of Voronezh in Russia. That's about 250 kilometers away. Ukraine has not previously struck Russian territory with missiles from such a distance, which again shows some of Ukraine's capacity to carry out deeper strikes into Russia," the official said.

Kaju added that Ukraine's focus includes striking various Russian oil refining facilities, power plants, and different types of early warning and air defense systems. "In the latter case, this includes attacks on S-400 systems and also various longer-range radar systems in Crimea."

"In summary, we can say that the current combat situation on the front is quite similar to what it has been in recent months. Neither side has made significant advances. There is a pattern of seizing new territory, then losing it again, and the other side seizing it in turn. So it's an ongoing cycle of territory changing hands and repeated assaults. And this will likely continue in the same way for some time," Kaju added.

He also said that recently the Russian side has lost about three of its aircraft near front-line areas.

"I mean manned aircraft – fighter jets, helicopters. In addition, around six helicopters and fighter jets have crashed for various reasons without any external impact. So losses continue for the Russian armed forces in the air domain as well, for various reasons, but at the end of the day, this brings at least some benefit to us."

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