According to the prediction model developed by the Institute for Social Studies, the Center Party are expected to win big in this week's local elections in Tallinn by a large margin. The party's support is expected to reach 42.1 percent by the time voting closes.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE) are predicted to win 16.3 percent of the vote, while Isamaa are forecast to collect 13.6 percent.

According to the forecast, the Reform Party with 10.1 percent support, EKRE with 7.2 percent, and Parempoolsed with 5.9 percent support would also enter Tallinn City Council. Eesti 200 would remain outside the council with just 1.2 percent support.

At the beginning of the week, the Institute for Social Studies predicted that the Center Party would win 39 seats in Tallinn, giving it near-absolute power. That was, however, based on the assumption that Parempoolsed would not achieve enough votes to cross the threshold.

Nevertheless, based on the predicted distribution of seats, the Center Party, which has the most support, could form a coalition with any other party that enters the council.

According to the latest forecast by the Institute for Social Studies, Center are predicted to win 36 seats in the 79-member city council (39 was the forecast at the beginning of the week, i.e., -3), SDE 13 (unchanged), Isamaa 11 (-1), the Reform Party 8 (-1) EKRE would get 6 (unchanged) and Parempoolsed would win 5 (+5).

Norstat's forecast is similar to that of SA Liberaalne Kodanik (SALK), which also predicted that Parempoolsed will enter the council.

The Center Party candidate is currently the most popular in six of Tallinn's districts.

The highest level of support is for Mihhail Kõlvart in Lasnamäe (51 percent), Lauri Laats in Mustamäe (34 percent), Anstassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart in North Tallinn (24 percent), and Jana Toom in Haabersti (19 percent).

Among other parties, the most popular candidate is Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) in Nõmme with 16 percent and Jevgeni Ossinovski (SDE) in Kesklinn with 15 percent.

Isamaa and Reform neck-and-neck in Tartu

Isamaa continues to lead in Tartu with 22.9 percent support. However, the party's lead over the Reform Party (22.1 percent), which has long held power in the city, fell again this week.

If the results align with Norstat's forecast, Isamaa and Reform would have 13 seats each on Tartu City Council.

The SDE's support in Tartu is at 17.4 percent, which would win them 10 seats, while Center have 13.1 percent (7 seats) and EKRE 12.4 percent (6 seats).

In Tartu, incumbent mayor Urmas Klaas (Reform) is the most popular individual candidate on 12 percent. Support for Isamaa's mayoral candidate Tõnis Lukas is at 9 percent.

Parempoolsed, with 4.6 percent support, and Eesti 200, with 3.9 percent support, are predicted to fall below the electoral threshold.

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The surveys on which the forecast is based were conducted between October 7 and 17.

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