In a survey conducted by Kantar Emor from September 10–17 among 422 permanent residents of Tallinn aged 16 and older, 42 percent said they would like to see Mihhail Kõlvart serve as mayor.

Social Democrat and current Mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski ranked second among all respondents, with 15 percent support.

All other mayoral candidates from the major parties polled under 10 percent. Maris Lauri (Reform) received 9 percent support, Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) 8 percent, Lavly Perling (Parempoolsed) 7 percent, Martin Helme (EKRE) 4 percent and Aleksei Jašin (Eesti 200) just 1 percent.

Kõlvart's lead is largely driven by his strong backing among voters of non-Estonian ethnic backgrounds: 69 percent of non-ethnic Estonian respondents preferred Kõlvart. In contrast, Ossinovski and Lauri each received just 4 percent support from this demographic.

Among ethnic Estonian voters, however, Ossinovski is more popular than Kõlvart. Twenty-six percent of ethnic Estonians want Ossinovski to remain mayor. He is followed by Reinsalu (16 percent), Lauri (15 percent), Kõlvart (15 percent) and Perling (14 percent). Helme has 7 percent support in this group, while Jašin has 1 percent.

Kõlvart is the most popular candidate among 35–64-year-olds (51 percent) and those aged 65 and older (46 percent). Among 35–64-year-olds, support for other candidates is fairly evenly distributed but remains under 10 percent. In the 65+ age group, Lauri comes in second with 15 percent.

Younger voters, however, favor Ossinovski. Among those under 35, 29 percent said they would like to see him as mayor, compared to 20 percent for Kõlvart. Sixteen percent of younger voters said they would prefer someone other than the officially nominated party candidates.

Center to win Tallinn but miss out on absolute majority

The Center Party, which won 45.4 percent of the vote in the last local elections in Tallinn, remains the clear favorite to win again this year. In September, 38 percent of voters who said they were certain to vote backed the party, down slightly from 39 percent in August. Therefore, the Kantar Emor poll conducted one month ahead of the election does not forecast a solo majority for the Center Party in the capital.

The Social Democratic Party ranked second among Tallinn voters, with 15 percent support (up from 14 percent in August and 7.5 percent in the previous election).

Reform Party rose to third place with 14 percent (up from 10 percent in August), while Isamaa dropped to fourth with 8 percent (down from 13 percent).

Parempoolsed and EKRE would also clear the electoral threshold, with 7 and 6 percent, respectively.

Eesti 200 would fall below the threshold with 4 percent, the same level of support as the party Koos.

It's important to note that the survey reflects only general party support in Tallinn, as candidate lists had not yet been finalized when polling began. Additionally, the maximum margin of error for this sample size is ±4 percentage points.

Nationwide, the Center Party and Isamaa are polling strongest ahead of the local elections, with 21 percent and 18 percent support, respectively, according to the September survey. Another 18 percent of respondents said they would vote for an electoral alliance.

In the 2021 local elections, the Center Party received 24.4 percent of the vote nationwide, electoral alliances took 24.3 percent and the Reform Party earned 17.3 percent.

The local council election week runs from October 13 through October 19.

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