Tartu, which has long been a Reform Party stronghold, had seen a shift in recent weeks. A month ago, Isamaa was firmly in the lead in Estonia's second city, rating at 30 percent to Reform's 20 percent. However, this gap has now equalized, with both parties now essentially tied, as reported by "Aktuaalne kaamera."

Institute of Societal Studies data analyst Remi Sebastian Kits explained the situation: "This means that Isamaa is at 23 percent, Reform Party at 22, and they are, within the margin of error, essentially tied, though Isamaa has a slight advantage. In reality, it is not possible to say which one will win at this point. The Social Democrats are in third place with 17 percent, followed by the Center Party with 13 percent, and EKRE in fifth place with 12 percent."

In terms of smaller parties, both Parempoolsed and Eesti 200 — which have competed with Reform and with each other nationally — are currently below the 5-percent threshold required to win council seats. However, Kits added, both parties still stand a chance of making it into the city council. Parempoolsed's chances are seen as slightly better, according to the forecast.

"Their support definitely needs to rise a bit, either because of voter turnout or just luck. Parempoolsed have risen both nationally and in Tallinn and Tartu during the election week, and while Eesti 200 had 5.1 percent in Tartu last week, it has now fallen to 3.9, largely because Parempoolsed's has gone up," Kits said.

Among those who voted at a polling station in Tartu city center, "Aktuaalne kaamera" spoke to voters who based their choice on individual candidates as much as on party platforms. For some, the choice was particularly difficult.

"It's very hard to choose, because I'm a bit disappointed in politicians and I think they should get along better with each other. They should reach agreements and so on," one voter, Aino, said.

"I even read the manifestos. I looked at what seemed the most sympathetic and voted according to that program, plus I voted for a woman. I won't deny that I took the list and chose the first woman from the party that suited me," said another, Kati.

"The last time I voted, I cast a 'werewolf vote,' but this time I felt I could support this candidate and gave a serious vote with a clear conscience," a third voter, Emil Rupert, added.

Turning to voter turnout, Jüri Mölder, chair of the Tartu election committee, said that as of Saturday afternoon, voter turnout in Tartu stood at 40 percent — a figure somewhat higher than in the last local elections in October 2021 and mirroring a nationwide trend.

"At this rate, we might see a record voter turnout, despite an apparently flat pre-election campaigning period and a reduced electorate following a constitutional amendment in spring," Mölder noted.

"If we compare this with previous elections, including the local elections held four years ago, the turnout is currently a few percentage points higher, and based on that, we could predict that by tomorrow evening, participation will be close to 60 percent — which would be a record for us," Mölder added.

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