According to the latest survey — conducted online and by phone with 855 eligible voters in Tallinn — support for the Center Party stood at 46 percent (compared with 45.4 percent in the previous local elections).

They were followed by the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 17 percent, Isamaa with 11 percent and the Reform Party with 10 percent.

EKRE and Parempoolsed were hovering right at the 5 percent electoral threshold, while Eesti 200 was not far behind with 4 percent support.

Because several parties are polling near the threshold, Kantar Emor analyst Aivar Voog prepared three scenarios projecting how council seats might be distributed depending on which of these parties make it into the city council.

Scenario 1: EKRE and Parempoolsed just make the threshold

The first scenario — considered most likely by Voog — is that both EKRE and Parempoolsed narrowly pass the 5 percent electoral threshold.

In that case, the Center Party would fall short of an outright majority in the 79-seat council, winning 39 seats. Under this projection, SDE would take 14 seats, Isamaa 10, the Reform Party eight and EKRE and Parempoolsed four seats each.

Although the Center Party would not gain sole control in this scenario, it would still have strong chances of forming a coalition — potentially with EKRE (for a total of 43 seats), Isamaa (49 seats) or even the Reform Party (47 seats). A coalition with SDE is also numerically possible, though Center head Mihhail Kõlvart has ruled out working with Jevgeni Ossinovski (SDE).

Scenario 2: EKRE makes the cut but Parempoolsed fall short

The scenario in which EKRE crosses the 5 percent threshold but Parempoolsed fall just short is considered slightly less likely by Voog than the first.

In this case, a significant share of the vote — about 11 percent — would go to parties that fail to meet the threshold. Those votes would then be redistributed, amplifying support for the leading party, the Center Party. This could give them sole control of the council, similar to what happened in the 2017 local elections, when they won 44.4 percent of the vote and secured 40 seats.

Under this projection, Kantar Emor forecasts 41 seats for the Center Party, 15 for SDE, 10 for Isamaa, nine for the Reform Party and four for EKRE.

Scenario 3: If Eesti 200 makes the council

The third scenario — considered the least likely of the three — assumes that all parties currently polling near the electoral threshold, including EKRE, Parempoolsed and Eesti 200, narrowly clear the 5 percent mark.

In this case, the share of votes going to parties left out of the council would be smaller, which would also reduce the boost typically gained by the leading party — in this case, the Center Party.

According to Voog's calculations, under this scenario the Center Party would win 37 seats, SDE 13, Isamaa nine, the Reform Party eight and EKRE, Parempoolsed and Eesti 200 would each take four seats.

Even under this scenario, the Center Party would still have enough seats to form a coalition with EKRE, giving them a combined total of 41 mandates. An even stronger majority could be secured through a coalition with either Isamaa or the Reform Party.

Center also tops the local elections poll nationwide

According to Kantar Emor's poll, the Center Party holds the highest level of support nationwide ahead of the local elections, with 24 percent of all votes.

Independent electoral alliances come in second with 19 percent, followed by Isamaa with 16 percent.

EKRE is projected to receive 11 percent nationwide, while the Reform Party and SDE each stand at 9 percent. Other parties — including Parempoolsed, Eesti 200, Koos and others — collectively account for 11 percent support.

In the previous local elections four years ago, the Center Party received 24.4 percent nationwide, electoral alliances 24.3 percent, the Reform Party 17.3 percent, EKRE 13.2 percent, Isamaa 8.4 percent, Eesti 200 6 percent and SDE 5 percent.

The nationwide survey was conducted as part of Kantar Emor's regular monthly CAWI bus (online) and CATI bus (telephone) studies. About one-third of all interviews were conducted by phone. The online sample was drawn from Kantar Emor's pre-recruited and validated respondent base, Foorum, which includes around 30,000 verified contacts. The polling period ran from October 3 to 13.

In the Tallinn survey, respondents were shown (or, in phone interviews, read) a list of specific candidates' names. Each respondent saw six names from each list in their electoral district, unless a list had fewer than six candidates, in which case all names were shown.

Data from three separate surveys — two online and one by phone — were combined. Phone interviews accounted for 20 percent of all responses. The first online survey was conducted from September 25 to October 2, the phone survey from October 3 to 13 and the second online survey from October 8 to 13. In total, 855 eligible voters in Tallinn who intend to vote were surveyed.

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