Analyst: Mihhail Kõlvart will win Tallinn by a landslide

Center Party chair and former Tallinn mayor Mihhail Kõlvart is expected to perform very well in the October local elections, predicts political analyst Tarmo Jüristo.
"Mihhail Kõlvart will have a stellar result. He's the undisputed leader in Tallinn — no one can touch him there," said political analyst Tarmo Jüristo on Tuesday morning's broadcast of "Terevisioon" where he commented on October local elections' candidate lists made public Monday evening. "And he'll also do very well among Estonian-speaking voters," the expert added.
In Jüristo's view, Kõlvart's position won't be shaken even though other parties have fielded strong candidates in Lasnamäe, the district where he's running.
"Lasnamäe is definitely one to watch, because for some reason, all the big names from every party have ended up competing there. I'm actually quite curious to see what those debates will look like and how things play out," he said.
Among the high-profile candidates running in Lasnamäe: former Center Party chair and ex-mayor of Tallinn, now MEP Jüri Ratas, heading the list for Isamaa; MEP Marina Kaljurand leading the Social Democrats' list, followed by Vladimir Svet — former district elder and former Center Party member — and current district elder Julianna Jurtšenko. Olga Ivanova, another former Center Party politician and ex-district elder, is running with the Tallinners (Tallinlaste Valimisliit) election coalition. Eeva Helme tops EKRE's list, Deputy Mayor Aleksei Jašin leads for Eesti 200 and Social Affairs Minister Karmen Joller heads the Reform Party's list. Aivo Peterson is the lead candidate for Koos.
Commenting on the phenomenon of so-called decoy ducks — well-known politicians running but unlikely to actually take up seats in local councils — Jüristo noted that the tactic is more effective in larger municipalities.
"Name recognition is a politician's main currency and plays a bigger role in large local governments than in small ones. In smaller areas, people usually know who's running for the council and what they're about. In bigger cities, things are more anonymous, so standing out is more important," he explained.
Jüristo also pointed out that voters tend to see local elections as less party-political compared to national elections.
"Of course, they're political — this summer's city-level campaign decisions have had major national implications. But mayors, in the eyes of the general public, are more like CEOs of large organizations. They're expected to be professional, to know how things work and their party affiliation often takes a back seat," he said.

Communications expert Daniel Vaarik, speaking on "Vikerhommik," echoed this sentiment, saying he chooses candidates based largely on who he believes will get important things done.
"I rule out parties I suspect are intentionally trying to destabilize society — I won't vote for them, no matter how good an individual candidate they may have. But that still leaves several parties. For local elections, I simply choose the person I believe will do their job well. I don't care what party they're from. I just ask myself: as a resident of Tallinn, do I trust this person to work on the issues that matter for our city's future? That's the beauty of local elections — you can think in very concrete, pragmatic terms. You can even just ask: do I believe this person can get things fixed here? That's a totally reasonable way to approach it," Vaarik said.
He also pushed back on the claim that voter disillusionment is especially high this election cycle.
"I hear that kind of talk before every election. But I still think it's worth voting. People don't need to be pressured, but this idea that politicians are inherently bad — I don't know. I don't buy it. Politicians are part of our society too. I think the best way to keep faith in the system is to vote. Think about who really matters to you and give them your support," he said. "Part of today's world seems to be trying to convince us that politicians are always bad — but they're not."
In his view, many politicians — especially those in power — have simply not adapted to the way they need to communicate with people today. "That's something you can fairly criticize. But that doesn't mean they're all cynical or rotten," Vaarik said.

As a new trend, Vaarik pointed out that several parties have included hardline or provocative figures on their candidate lists — so-called "mini-Trumps."
"I think parties want to experiment and see what happens if they bring in these tough-talking types. It worked in the U.S., after all. It's polarizing, sure, but maybe worth testing out before the elections. And I'm not always convinced it's an accident when a party attracts someone extreme. Maybe that person gets described as a 'free thinker' and the party figures that if they become popular, they might turn out to be an asset," he speculated.
The week of local government council elections runs from October 13 to October 19.
A total of 9,674 candidates have been registered for the elections.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Marcus Turovski










