ICDS: NATO facing undeclared Baltic Sea hybrid warfare by Russia
NATO has responded to Russia's war in Ukraine by enhancing its defense and deterrence posture in the Nordic-Baltic region and elsewhere, experts from think tank the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) write.
This has strengthened the alliance's naval presence and power and substantially altered the status of the Baltic Sea in NATO's regional defense planning, and consequently the responsibilities and demands placed on naval forces in the region during peacetime, crisis, and war alike.
As NATO faces undeclared hybrid warfare in the Baltic Sea region, and elsewhere, the Baltic Sea itself could become a key and complex operational theater in the event of any NATO-Russia conflict.
As a priority, NATO needs a strengthened and credible naval capability here — both to deter Russia from believing it can conduct hybrid aggression free from consequences and be emboldened to escalate towards conventional conflict — and, in the event of conflict, to ensure maritime control in an alliance context, in order to keep sea lanes open.
The stakes are high, and the timeline is short. Deterrence must not wait for perfect conditions. It must begin now, despite the fact that most European allies are experiencing a period of transition and vulnerability.
Success hinges on political resolve, operational readiness, and early, visible action. Allied nations, both in and outside the Baltic Sea region, should therefore:
- Continue to deepen regional cooperation, evolve maritime strategies, and ensure the readiness of forces to operate effectively in a contested and dynamic environment.
- Improve joint situational awareness.
Allied nations should also increase maritime assets in and available for the Baltic Sea region, including by:
- Instituting a collaborative crash program for drones.
- Creating a Standing NATO Maritime Group for the Baltic Sea region.
- Investing in a robust and modern naval presence as an appropriate complement to augmenting land defense.• Balancing planning for hybrid war and high-end operations.
- Discussing options for deterrence-by-punishment approaches to maritime hybrid attacks.
The full Hybrid and High-End Warfare in the Baltic Sea Region: Safeguarding our Maritime Domain report from the ICDS is available here.
This piece originally appeared on the ICDS website.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Source: ICDS
