Former Estonian Prime Minister and European Commission Vice-President Siim Kallas said that U.S. President Donald Trump has not taken a single step during his time in power to make Vladimir Putin change his behavior. "On the contrary, he has indirectly supported Putin the whole time," Kallas said.

Kallas noted that Europe can overcome the challenges posed by Hungary and Slovakia, which at times oppose common European security principles. "In fact, the European treaty has this clever Article 48, paragraph seven, which says that if it's really necessary, consensus can be bypassed. That's the interpretation. It's worded more complicatedly," he explained.

Kristi Raik, director of the Estonia-based International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), said European integration has generally brought positive results. "Europe has gone furthest with this idealistic vision that if countries cooperate, consider each other's interests and integrate, then everyone achieves a better outcome. We get more economic growth, more security if we are less selfish and take others into account, especially in the case of small states. It's possible this really does work and within Europe it has worked extremely well. Just look at the prosperity Europe has reached since World War II and how stable it has been," Raik said.

According to her, however, global trends today are moving in the opposite direction. "We're seeing the return of great-power-centered, interest-driven politics. And many political forces in Europe are responding by saying: let's also become more selfish and focus narrowly on our own national interests," Raik said.

"What have Hungary and Slovakia actually achieved with this so far? I think especially in Hungary's case, [Prime Minister Viktor] Orbán has long believed that the future powers in the world are authoritarian great states, that they will set the direction for global development and that it's better to get along with them and head in that direction. But what has he achieved? He hasn't really gained any meaningful benefit from Russia or China. And he thought that when a like-minded politician came to power in the United States, it would give him an advantage in dealing with Washington. But there's no sign of that. Trump engages with those who have the most influence in Europe. And Orbán is isolated, with no real sway in Europe," Raik said.

Former Member of the European Parliament Indrek Tarand warned that if Italy, Germany and France take the path of isolation, the European Union will collapse. "Because we, along with the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and the Czech Republic, cannot maintain the single market across the continent on our own."

Tarand said countries should prioritize not their own narrow interests, but what they can agree on collectively. "If that doesn't work, what's the alternative? That we're bigger and stronger, we take what we want and you keep quiet," he said.

Kallas observed that the global balance of power is shifting toward bipolarity. "America has left all its friends out in the cold, with China being the main issue. China has risen incredibly. The question is where different countries position themselves and what will come of it. For example, what will India do?" Kallas said.

Raik, however, argued that a bipolar world order will not emerge. "I don't think we'll see the kind of clear bipolar system we had during the Cold War. Today, the confusion is much greater. Maybe 'multipolar world' is a more fitting term," she said.

Still, Raik acknowledged that the U.S. and China are two leaders competing with one another, with others either aligning behind them or trying to stay in between without choosing sides.

One thing that has been turned upside down, she said, is America's alliances. "The U.S. used to be the great power whose huge strength was building long-term alliances. Those gave it global support and influence. Trump's fundamental change in foreign policy is that he doesn't value alliances the way they were before. He seems to think he can treat allies however he wants, insult them, damage relations and it won't weaken his influence. But his actions are pushing long-standing allies away," Raik said.

Host Indrek Kiisler suggested Europe might as well call itself America's vassals.

Tarand agreed and said Europe should invest in building its own army. "Europe, especially under the Lisbon Treaty, should quickly create its own defense forces, because we cannot be sure that our loyal, chivalrous vassal status [to the U.S.] will last forever. That's why we must build independent armed forces, an autonomous component within NATO under the name of the European Union. And we mustn't forget, alongside strengthening conventional weapons, that our long-standing member France is an autonomous nuclear power. Its arsenal is sufficient to deter any Russian attempts to attack the EU. Ninety-five percent of Russia's arsenal is nonfunctional and France's 400 warheads are more than enough," Tarand said.

"But of course, there has to be a stable French government, a functioning European Union and the deterrent must be genuine," he added.

Kallas said that if Europe was able to agree on a joint project in aviation with Airbus, it should be possible in military aviation too. "The French have capable fighter jets. Fine, they're not F-35s, but they're still aircraft that the Russians can't match," he said.

"The fact that today we're America's vassals – well, the Americans themselves have always offered that arrangement," Kallas added.

"I'd like to bring this defense discussion back a bit to reality," Raik said in response.

"First, yes, Europe does need stronger defense capabilities. I think by now everyone understands that, and work is being done on it. But the reality is that the U.S. remains an indispensable ally. There's no point in thumping our chests. We should hold on to that relationship as long as we can. And we don't even know whether the big European states would be better allies," she said.

"A European army just isn't going to happen, because political reality won't allow it. It's hard to imagine European countries handing over their decision-making power on using military force, on questions of war and peace, to Brussels. But what can be done is developing certain capabilities at the European level – like air defense and intelligence, which Europe badly lacks. Here we need cross-border projects, which individual states can't adequately build alone. But even that will be a very slow process," Raik said.

"And as for nuclear deterrence, America's role in Europe is irreplaceable. France's doctrine doesn't even foresee its nuclear capability protecting others – it protects France," she added.

At the same time, Raik noted that French President Emmanuel Macron has started a discussion in France on whether its nuclear deterrence could also protect other EU members.

Tarand said France should be persuaded to change its stance.

"We'll see what comes of those discussions," Raik said.

"But in terms of sheer capability, the U.S. and Russia are in a separate league, far ahead of France and the United Kingdom. Of course, it's better than nothing, but it won't provide the kind of deterrence America offers, not in the foreseeable future," Raik said.

On the idea of a European army, Raik added that the French would be the last to give up sovereignty.

Raik stressed that the long-term trend for the U.S. is to contribute less to Europe's security. "We've known this for a long time, regardless of who is in power today or who comes after Trump. They've wanted to focus more on China and Asia. The only question is how fast the shift happens and whether it's done in coordination with European allies so there's no sudden gap in our defense. Right now, I think there's hope this process can be managed in a way that avoids major shocks," she said.

Commenting on Estonian politicians' remarks about Trump and the U.S., Tarand and Kallas said it is mostly good that such opinions are expressed openly.

They referred to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas's (daughter of Siim Kallas – ed.) comment directed at Trump that the free world needs a new leader and Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi's remark that America can no longer be relied upon.

"After leaving the Soviet Union, we've gone down the path of saying openly what we think," Siim Kallas said.

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