Estonian intel: Russia's military losses outpacing recruitment
Russia is still attacking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and pressuring the front but losing more troops than it recruits, Estonian military intelligence said Friday.
Russia lost an average of 1,400 troops a day last week, Col. Ants Kiviselg, director of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Military Intelligence Center, said at Friday's weekly briefing.
"This trend is continuing, with Russian military losses exceeding the number of newly recruited soldiers by several thousand a month," he noted.
Front-line fighting remained intense, averaging 231 combat engagements a day, with the heaviest fighting around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region, followed by areas near Sloviansk, Hulyaipole and southern Slobozhanske. Ukrainian forces also mounted counterattacks in several areas.
Russian long-range strikes hit infrastructure, homes and other civilian targets in at least 10 Ukrainian regions, while airstrikes caused power outages in at least six. Attacks on Ukrainian ports and nearby shipping also continued.
Most civilian casualties since May 2022
Long-range Russian weapons continue to account for most civilian casualties. July saw Ukraine's highest monthly civilian toll since May 2022, with 437 people killed and 2,610 injured — 70 percent more than in July 2025.
Jet-powered drones, Kiviselg noted, now account for between one-fifth and two-thirds of Russian attacks, with their share continuing to grow.
Russian air attacks also affected neighboring Moldova. An S8000 Banderol loitering munition entered Moldovan airspace and crashed less than 20 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Kiviselg said Moldovan President Maia Sandu has said some Russian drones enter the country's airspace accidentally, while other flight paths suggest deliberate incursions.
Ukraine steps up its own strikes
Ukraine, meanwhile, stepped up strikes on Russian and Russian-held energy and military targets. Ukrainian forces carried out two major attacks on Crimea's energy infrastructure last week, with drone units also targeting Bastion-M missile systems, airfields, radars and drone-control equipment on the peninsula.
According to Kiviselg, Ukrainian troops have struck nearly 240 energy facilities in Crimea since July 1.
Recent Ukrainian strikes also hit a Russian rocket-fuel plant in Rostov Oblast, oil refineries in Leningrad Oblast and Bashkortostan, Wildberries warehouses in Moscow and Tver Oblasts, a chemical plant in Moscow Oblast as well as Savasleyka Air Base in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.
Kiviselg added that a recent strike on Roscosmos' Progress facility in Samara Oblast, which assembles Soyuz-2 rockets used to put satellites into orbit, could hobble Russian military capabilities by delaying launches for Rassvet, Russia's planned alternative to Starlink.
Russia's online retail, public events being affected
Attacks on Russia's fuel industry have also caused fuel shortages, with reduced availability reported in 10 regions and among Russian units fighting in Ukraine, while strikes on seven of Wildberries' ten largest warehouses have cut the Russian online retail giant's turnover by as much as 25 percent.
Ukrainian strikes are also impacting public events in Russia. Kiviselg said Russian authorities canceled a military music festival along with other military-patriotic events, noting that organizers' cited circumstances beyond their control is likely a reference to the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Aili Vahtla
