Successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure and warehouses belonging to online retailers are having a noticeable impact on, for example, fuel supplies to the Russian military and the availability of key electronic components, Suur said.

"The Russian army has priority when it comes to fuel supplies in Russia. But because the price of fuel on the black market has risen five- or sixfold compared with the spring, there is pressure at intermediate points in the logistics chain to steal it. As a result, less fuel reaches frontline units. Until now, fuel has been stolen before it reaches the army and the authorities have turned a blind eye to it. But now there is nothing left to steal, which makes logistics at lower levels considerably more difficult," Suur said.

Frontline units have also used fuel as a form of currency, selling or trading it to obtain supplies they lack, he added.

"That channel has now dried up. In addition, attacks on retail chains and warehouses belonging to Wildberries and Ozon have made all kinds of essential electronic equipment less readily available — drones, tablets, power banks and generators, all of which are badly needed at the front. We cannot speak of a major turning point, but we can speak of sand in the gears," Suur said.

Ukrainian forces have also successfully attacked Russian space centers, which in turn reduces Russian forces' ability to carry out long-range strikes and use drones in attacks, he said.

"This is slowing Russia's efforts to develop an alternative to Starlink — they need to launch a large number of satellites to do that. Their launch vehicles are expendable. They do not have a comparable reusable rocket and if their production capacity is reduced, they cannot put as many satellites into orbit, meaning the development of their own domestic equivalent of Starlink will be delayed," Suur said.

"This also hampers long-range strikes, as well as the use of smaller drones on the front line that require an internet connection or systems that need one for geolocation," he added.

Russian airstrikes have also caused extensive destruction, particularly in Kyiv. On August 20, Russian forces carried out one of their largest air attacks on Kyiv to date, killing at least 16 people.

"They used a highly coordinated combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, primarily to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. There were various targets. Ukraine, of course, does not disclose everything that was hit or what it believes was being targeted, but various industrial facilities and warehouses were struck, as were some medical facilities and civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings," Suur said.

Fighting remains fiercest in Donetsk Oblast, while Russian forces have also begun putting pressure on Kharkiv from the north.

"The overall number of attacks is increasing, as are the numbers of indirect-fire attacks and drone strikes and some gains have been made here and there. In the direction of Kostiantynivka, the Russians are advancing slowly but steadily," Suur said.

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