EDF: Russian mobilization would put pressure on Ukraine and change wider security situation

If Russia announces a mobilization following September State Duma elections, it would increase pressure on Ukraine and also change the security situation in this region, said Col. Janno Märk, chief of staff of the EDF Division.
International media have recently reported extensively on the possibility of mobilization in the Russian Federation, which, according to speculation, could take place after the country's State Duma elections in mid-September.
"If Russia decides in favor of mobilization, pressure on Ukrainian forces will certainly increase in the fall, particularly during a period when weather conditions also reduce the effectiveness of drones," Märk said.
He added that mobilization would also change the situation among units stationed in border areas, affecting security in this region as well.
According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a strong position on the battlefield would allow Ukraine to enter negotiations from a fairly strong position.
"Ukraine wants to do everything possible to end the war with Russia before winter arrives, although based on current assessments, that is very unlikely," Märk said.
Over the past week, Russia continued carrying out long-range strikes against Ukraine's logistics, agricultural, industrial, energy and transportation infrastructure. The strikes hit targets in at least 12 Ukrainian regions.
As a result of these attacks, shipping remains suspended at ports in Odesa region, while Ukrainian Railways has been forced to reorganize its operations and transit services.
The share of jet-powered drones used in Russian attacks has also increased in an effort to exploit Ukraine's shortage of interceptor missiles, including those used against ballistic missiles. Russia is using munitions produced both domestically and in North Korea.
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia is producing these missiles at a faster rate than planned and is prioritizing the production of weapons that have a better chance of penetrating Ukrainian air defenses, Märk explained.
Ukraine has also continued its own long-range strikes, targeting six oil refineries over the past week, as well as a petrochemical plant in Russia. Märk particularly highlighted a Ukrainian attack on the naval base in Novorossiysk.
"The attack involved a combination of different weapons and, according to preliminary information, succeeded in damaging two frigates and one Buyan-M-class small missile ship," the colonel said.
The extent of the damage to the vessels still needs to be determined, but the attack itself continues Ukraine's campaign that forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to leave Crimea.
Maj. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces and also known by his call sign Magyar, said Ukrainian forces have succeeded in expanding the engagement zone along the front line, which is also slowing the advance of Russian units.
"Ukraine has been intensifying this type of medium-range deep battle since the end of last year and its effectiveness increased significantly in the first half of this year. Targets immediately behind the front line, within a zone roughly 100 kilometers deep, include concentrations of enemy personnel, supplies, fuel, ammunition and various types of military equipment before they can reach the battlefield," Märk said, explaining that this has also allowed Ukraine to offset its shortages of conventional systems and personnel.
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Editor: Märten Hallismaa, Marcus Turovski










