Kiviselg said on Friday that over the past week Ukraine has struck at least nine oil refineries and terminals deep inside Russia.

"The attack on the Omsk refinery must be considered significant. It is one of Russia's largest oil‑processing facilities. The Omsk plant produced gasoline, diesel and also jet fuel used by the Russian military. In addition, it is the only producer of cracking catalysts needed for secondary oil processing, which will certainly affect the work of other refineries producing high‑quality gasoline, diesel and jet fuel," he said.

"We know that in previous years the Omsk plant alone produced about 15 percent of Russia's jet fuel. Now the plant has halted operations, which may directly hinder Russia's air force capabilities in the near future," Kiviselg said.

He said the strike on Omsk shows Ukraine's long‑range strike capability continues to improve. It also illustrates that the Russian Federation is unable to defend key areas with its air defense.

Ukrainian strikes show cumulative impact

"Ukraine's general staff said that as of early July 2026, about 40 percent of Russia's planned refining capacity has become inoperable due to these attacks, and over the past year the financial damage has reached $13.5 billion," Kiviselg said.

"We will likely see the cumulative impact of these strikes in the coming months. Russia has gone from being a net exporter of oil products to a net importer of liquid fuels, and these import volumes cannot even cover its domestic consumption needs," he added.

Speaking about last week's events in Ukraine, Kiviselg said the main pressure on the battlefield remained in Donetsk region near Kostyantynivka, Lyman and Pokrovsk.

"Although the Russian Federation has increased combat activity to about 270 engagements per day, it has not achieved significant progress on the front," he said.

Kiviselg said Russia has used about 8,500 to 10,000 tactical unmanned strike systems per day to support ground attacks — drones have carried out 3,000 strikes on various targets. These drone attacks have been supported by about 90 tactical combat flights per day. During these flights, an average of 280 glide bombs have been dropped on fixed targets in Ukraine.

Kiviselg said that despite President Vladimir Putin's claims of major success on the front, such as the capture of Kostyantynivka, Russia has no meaningful achievements to show. He added that Russia has carried out several long‑range terror attacks as an expression of battlefield failure and frustration.

He said Ukraine has had problems intercepting ballistic missiles during these attacks.

"Ukraine's shortage of Patriot ammunition for ballistic missile defense has allowed Russia to reduce the number of ballistic missiles used statistically. In June, Russia used an average of 40 ballistic missiles per attack, but in early July we see that the number has dropped by about one‑third, to around 30. Russia likely believes it can achieve the same effect with fewer missiles," Kiviselg said.

Ukraine expands long‑range targets and reach 

Kiviselg said Ukraine has significantly increased both the number and range of long‑range strike targets.

"This can be divided into two major campaigns: first, isolating the Crimean Peninsula, and second, neutralizing Russia's energy infrastructure and export capacity. As a result of these systematic strikes, Ukraine has attacked at least six airfields, destroying or damaging at least seven combat aircraft and an unknown number of Shahed drones.

Transport infrastructure and ports have continued to be targeted, including the Ust‑Luga and Vysotsk seaports in the eastern Gulf of Finland. In the Kerch area, a ferry terminal has been struck, and in the Sea of Azov at least 19 vessels supporting Crimea — with fuel or other military supplies — have been attacked. These strikes in Crimea and the Sea of Azov can be considered relatively successful," Kiviselg said.

He added that Ukraine has continued attacks on substations and infrastructure in occupied Crimea, causing several power outages.

Russia responds with information warfare 

Kiviselg said Russia reacts sharply to Ukraine's successful long‑range strikes. "They use hostile anti‑Western rhetoric, bringing in threats and demagoguery. The main accusation is that Ukraine's success is due to Western aid and support," he said.

He said Russia has also targeted the Baltic states and Finland with hostile narratives, claiming these countries allow their airspace to be used for Ukrainian strikes on Russia, alleging plans to deport Russian‑speaking residents en masse, and spreading claims about nuclear weapons being placed in Lithuania or Finland.

Kiviselg said the Kremlin has also begun saying at times that the conflict is no longer a special military operation but a full‑scale war because several European countries and the United States support Ukraine with information, intelligence, equipment and weapons.

He said that on July 7, Grigori Lukyantsev, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's human rights and multilateral cooperation department, falsely claimed that the Baltic states are preparing mass deportations of Russian‑speaking residents.

"All these statements serve coordinated information‑operation goals, likely aimed at creating fear of escalation in the West and weakening unity in continued support for Ukraine," Kiviselg said.

"In this light we can also view recent public discussions about possible Russian provocations or even military preparations toward the Baltic states. At present, this should be seen as part of Russia's information warfare aimed at influencing Western societies. We still see no military preparations from Russia to carry out an operation in the Baltics or this region in the near future," Kiviselg said.

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