In recent weeks, Western media outlets have again published a series of articles in which anonymous security sources warn of possible Russian provocations in Poland and the Baltic states.

For example, The Telegraph recently reported that the United States has warned Poland of a potential Russian provocation on Polish territory. Polish security sources have also not ruled out a more conventional attack — such as a small‑scale incursion by Russian ground forces into NATO's eastern flank.

"There is not a single concrete piece of information behind this, which makes it very difficult to comment at all. The Polish prime minister has repeated the U.S. warning, but with the phrase that Poland is preparing for all possible scenarios," Saks said.

"I would rule out a ground‑forces attack for the sake of provocation — writing such things is nonsense," he added.

Saks said that if Russia wanted to enter a military conflict with NATO, it would need to carry out full mobilization and make extremely serious preparations, because such a conflict would be the largest imaginable military confrontation in the modern world.

"At the moment, I have not seen a single fact indicating that Russia is preparing for military action in any other direction. All resources Russia is using now are directed toward warfare and aggression against Ukraine. They simply do not have resources for anything more," Saks commented.

According to Saks, various hybrid operations in Western countries occur regardless of the war in Ukraine.

Russia conducts information attacks every day. "And in our region we also see intelligence and counterintelligence activity. Drones enter our airspace — these incidents have been ongoing for quite some time," he said.

Russia exploits situations that arise in other countries

Saks said that when planning provocations in EU and NATO countries, Russia usually exploits situations that have already emerged in those states, rather than aggressively trying to create them.

"These are long‑term, continuous processes, and if countries are not prepared to defend their society, their information space, their sovereignty, then over time such events can start having an impact. We have seen attempts to stir up conflict within society — these are ongoing activities that mostly take place in the information space. And indeed, one major weakness of Western countries is that they do not know how to defend what happens in their own information space," Saks said.

He added that various hybrid operations in Western countries occur independently of the war in Ukraine. Examples include the vandalism of Estonia's interior minister's car, the explosion at a Czech ammunition depot, and the attempted assassination of the head of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.

"In the bigger picture, this comes down to the fact that Western countries have not been able to sufficiently contain Russia — there have been no effective counter‑policies. That is why Russia occasionally carries out such actions. Counterintelligence has been weak, and most importantly, Western countries do not know how to apply enough pressure on Russia. Instead, they try to maintain some sort of economic relations," Saks said.

"But I repeat: Russia is not capable right now of launching a larger military operation alongside the war in Ukraine. It lacks the resources, reserves, and supplies," he added.

The question of strategic initiative

In an interview in late May, Saks lamented that Western media often publish nearly uncritical reproductions of Russian messaging, which Russia uses in its information attacks to seize strategic initiative.

On Wednesday, Saks again noted that Russia's strategic situation has sharply worsened.

"Since May it has been steadily deteriorating, and especially since June, when major strikes on Moscow showed that Russia's air defense cannot cope. Last night three major oil refineries were hit. It is very hard to imagine that a country with essentially no functioning air defense could wage a larger war alongside the war in Ukraine. That is not a competent analysis — it is more like information warfare," Saks said.

At the same time, Saks considers Tuesday's decision by the International Olympic Committee to allow Russian athletes back into the Olympics a major victory for Russia.

"That IOC decision shows how Russia counts on the fact that this so‑called unified value space does not actually function. And the decision shows that people at the highest level — who should be moral leaders — do not consider the values they claim to uphold. It turns out it was all false. And because the IOC is led by someone from Western Europe, it leaves a depressing impression on those who care about these values. It is a morally significant victory for Russia. But these efforts have been ongoing since the moment the restrictions on Russian athletes were introduced," Saks said.

Russian oil production faces a steep decline

Speaking about Ukraine's long‑range strikes on Russian oil refineries, Saks said they are pushing Russia into a very difficult situation.

"These refineries belong to private capital. They are mostly not state‑owned — some may have state‑participation companies as owners. They do not receive state budget money for repairs. They must obtain financing from banks and credit institutions, and now they may face difficulties securing credit. The state will likely try to support them, because the Russian government wants these refineries to operate. They are crucial for logistics and everything else — and because if Russia's oil processing stops or declines significantly, it has nowhere to put the crude it pumps out of the ground," Saks said.

"They cannot increase exports — exports have already fallen due to sanctions and Ukrainian strikes. Storage capacity has been heavily damaged. Oil wells cannot simply be shut down. If this continues for six months to a year, Russian oil production will face a steep decline, and restoring it will take many years. So I think they will try to get the refineries running again as quickly as possible," he added.

"But the more refineries are destroyed, the bigger the problems become, because much of the technology must be imported. And if there is already a serious shortage of the equipment being destroyed, obtaining new equipment becomes increasingly difficult. A snowball effect emerges," Saks said.

One of Russia's few remaining advantages is the use of ballistic missiles, against which Ukraine has limited air defense, he noted.

"Right now Russia has managed to exhaust Ukraine's air defense against ballistic missiles — that keeps them afloat. Otherwise, I would argue that planning further war operations would be very difficult for them," Saks concluded.

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