The study, published in Nature, was based on more than 4,000 population-based surveys and measured height and weight data from 232 million people in 200 countries and territories from 1980 to 2024.

Researchers said the rise in obesity among children and adolescents slowed in many wealthier countries as early as the 1990s and mostly leveled off by the mid‑2000s. A similar shift among adults happened about ten years later.

The plateau occurred at very different levels of obesity. In Japan, France, Denmark and the Netherlands, obesity among children and adolescents stabilized at around three to six percent. In Kuwait, the United States and New Zealand, the slowdown came only after 19–25 percent of boys were already obese.

Little data on Estonian children 

For Estonian children and adolescents, the measurement data used in the international study go back only to 2016. Because of this, it is not yet possible to say whether the rise in childhood obesity has slowed in Estonia.

However, self‑reported data from the Health Behavior in School‑aged Children (HBSC) study show a clear increase in excess weight. In the 2001/2002 school year, an average of seven percent of 11–15‑year‑olds were overweight or obese. By 2021/2022, the figure had risen to 20 percent.

For adults, the Nature study places Estonia among Central and Eastern European countries where the rise in obesity has slowed or reached a plateau. In international comparison, this is relatively favorable, but excess weight remains widespread.

Eha Nurga, a senior researcher at the National Institute for Health Development (TAI), said prevalence alone does not describe the situation well. "With the same prevalence, the share of people with obesity may stop increasing in one country but worsen quickly in another. Tracking the speed of change gives public health a more practical view than looking only at obesity prevalence in a single year," she said.

Nurga said indicators for children and adolescents often give an early sign of what will later happen among adults. "In many wealthier countries, the rise in obesity among children and adolescents began slowing earlier than among adults. This helps show whether trends in excess weight are moving toward improvement or deterioration," she said.

She emphasized that reaching a plateau does not mean the problem disappears. "Even if the increase stops, a persistently high level of obesity creates a heavy long‑term burden for public health and the health insurance system," she said.

Estonian men gain weight early 

According to the TAI Health Statistics Yearbook 2026, the average body mass index (BMI) of Estonian men exceeds the normal‑weight range already at ages 20–24. For women, the average BMI reaches the same level at ages 35–44, with a sharper rise beginning after age 45.

Compared with the upper limit of normal weight for height, Estonian men ages 16–64 carry an average of 6.2 excess kilograms, while women carry 2.2.

Excess weight is influenced not only by health behavior but also by the environment in which people grow up. This is supported by an Estonian longitudinal study published in Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases, which compared two birth cohorts: people born in 1982–1983 and those born in 1988–1989.

Overweight and obesity increased with age in both cohorts, but the pace differed. In the older cohort, indicators were somewhat lower at younger ages, especially for women, but rose faster between ages 15 and 25 than in the younger cohort.

Waist circumference and its ratios to height and hip circumference increased the most in both sexes. Among men, body weight, BMI and hip circumference also rose faster. The cohorts differed in diet as well: the older cohort consumed more energy and carbohydrates and less protein than the younger cohort.

Diva Eensoo, a researcher in TAI's chronic diseases department, said this may partly reflect differences in the environment in which the cohorts grew up.

"The older cohort, born in the early 1980s, faced more psychological challenges in childhood and adolescence and for a longer period than the younger cohort. Economic instability, fear of war linked to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the transition to a market economy may have encouraged a preference for energy‑ and carbohydrate‑rich foods, which can reflect using food to regulate stress. The younger cohort's higher protein intake may reflect better access to meat products during the formation of their eating habits," she said.

Excess weight has a major impact on public health 

Excess weight increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and several cancers. TAI said excess weight in Estonia in 2023 was linked to 11.2 percent of all health loss — about 55,700 lost years of life — and 15.4 percent of all deaths.

Diseases related to excess weight lead to an estimated 250,000 illness cases per year. Treatment costs exceed €100 million, and total societal costs may reach more than €1.2 billion.

Researchers conclude that obesity reflects long‑term changes in society, living environments and health behavior. Because of this, public health efforts must detect changes as early as possible and shape environments that support healthy eating and physical activity for children and adolescents.

The Population Health Yearbook 2026 provides an overview of the health of Estonian residents and the factors that influence it. This year's focus topic examines the development of chronic disease risk factors through longitudinal studies. The yearbook includes data on life expectancy, healthy life years, major causes of death, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, overweight, mental health, health behavior and access to health services. It is available on the National Institute for Health Development website.